What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Plaincast decodes the National Weather Service's Area Forecast Discussion — the real forecast, written 3 to 4 times a day by the meteorologist on shift — into plain English. The discussion is where a forecaster explains their reasoning: which models disagree, what they are watching, and how confident they are. Below is the current edition for Los Angeles, with its shorthand expanded. The full experience — an AI plain-English summary beside the annotated original — loads with JavaScript, and every one of the 68 forecast offices has its own edition.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Los Angeles (LOX) · issued Sunday, November 15 at 5:51 AM PST.
Synopsis
Multiple periods of light to moderate rain are expected this coming week. Dry conditions will prevail through Today, with the next round of wet conditions set for tonight into Monday night, followed by more rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday night. The risk of significant impacts and flooding exists with the second storm system, as moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Temperatures will remain at or below normal. Very large surf will bring coastal impacts well into the coming week.
Short Term
Today will look very similar to yesterday temperature wise, with dry conditions and mostly clear skies. However, some stratus has developed over some of the valleys and interior mountains overnight, and if clouds linger this could limit warming in these locations. There is a small chance (5-10%) for could be a few small showers over the southern coastal waters this afternoon, but otherwise dry weather is expected for the day. Tonight into Monday, a front will sweep through the area bringing more rain chances. Current high resolution guidance is trending lower with rain coverage and amounts. If the the high-res rapid-refresh model and RRFS are on track, showers will generally be light, and spotty, with some areas likely remaining completely dry. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms for southeastern L.A. County later Monday night as the tail end of the front moves through. Overall though, this front does not look too impressive. Current expected rainfall forecasts are very meager with about a third of an inch or less expected across the area (with the best totals across northwest San Luis Obispo county and eastern San Gabriel mountains). It is possible that much of southern Santa Barbara County and a good portion of Ventura County fail to see any rain at all. Snow levels look to drop to around 5500 feet Monday evening/night, so a dusting of snow would not be out of the question above that level. Northwesterly winds are expected to increase across the I-5 Corridor, the Santa Ynez Range and the Santa Ynez Range Monday night with a 30-40% chance of advisory- level winds (especially through the I-5 Corridor), supported by a LAX-BFL offshore gradient around 4 mb.
A drier northwest flow will move into the region behind the front Monday night into Tuesday with clearing skies and cool temperatures. Highs on Tuesday should turn out to be about 5-10 deg below normal for most areas. This drier air will also allow overnight low temperatures to fall to around or below freezing Monday and Tuesday night, especially over the interior. Frost and/or freeze products may be needed.
This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. Read the whole Los Angeles discussion at /o/LOX/, see what changed since the last one, or open The National Desk for where the weather is today.