Raleigh (RAH) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.

Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Raleigh (RAH) · issued Friday, September 11 at 6:47 AM EDT.

Revised in 4 passages since the 2:16 AM discussion. See every revision.

What has changed

Heat indices 100-102 in the Triangle Area south and east to the coast today. Best chance of storms in the northeast.

Messages

Hot today with a chance of PM thunderstorms, especially north and east.

A bit cooler Saturday, but high humidity and thunderstorms are expected.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1. Hot today with a chance of PM thunderstorms, especially north and east.

Expect the day to begin mostly sunny as the latest satellite and observational data depict mainly clear skies under the upper ridge over the SE states. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices of 100-102 expected this afternoon, mainly from the eastern Piedmont through the Coastal Plain.

A weak front to our north is expected to trigger scattered thunderstorms, mainly over VA this afternoon. The latest hi-res convection allowing models suggest that widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will develop, mainly over the northern and eastern areas of central NC this afternoon, then linger into the evening. There may be a minimum of storm chances over the west- central Piedmont (west of the pre-frontal trough).

Very muggy lows tonight in the 70s are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2. A bit cooler Saturday, but high humidity and thunderstorms are expected.

The approaching mid/upper disturbance and weakening trough will give us a glancing blow as it passes to our north on Saturday. A weakening cold front and previous days left over boundaries should focus a day when more numerous thunderstorms develop over the region. expected rainfall is up this run a little from previous runs, but 50 percent of the area may still remain less than 0.50 or less. PWs will be very high and this moisture will combine with surface heating into the mid 80s NW and 90 SE to produce MLCapes around 2000 to 2500 j/kg SE. Locally heavy rain is expected, yet flash flooding should be isolated and limited to poor drainage areas. A few lucky areas will get 1 to 1.5 inches storm totals.

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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub