Raleigh (RAH) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

What has changed

The Freeze Watch for the northern and western Piedmont has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning for tonight.

A Frost Advisory has been issued elsewhere for tonight.

A Freeze Watch has been issued for all areas Saturday night.

Messages

A reinforcing cold front will move through the region tonight. Ahead of it this afternoon and evening, expect some gusty winds and a few light showers.

A Freeze Warning has been issued for the western and northern Piedmont tonight, with a Frost Advisory elsewhere.

A Freeze Watch has been issued for all counties for Saturday night.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1. A reinforcing cold front will move through the region tonight. Ahead of it this afternoon and evening, expect some gusty winds and a few light showers.

Another cold front will move through the region Friday night which will bring additional cold and dry air after Thursday's front. Ahead of the fropa, a shortwave trough looks to move through the region this evening. This should allow for a few light showers Friday evening/night. The most favored location for any rain looks to be east of the US-1 corridor, but not everywhere in this area will receive rain. Precipitation amounts should generally just be a trace to a few hundredths. Gusty winds will be possible again this afternoon ahead of the front, with northwesterly gusts up to about 20 mph possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the western and northern Piedmont tonight, with a Frost Advisory elsewhere.

The Freeze Watch previously issued has been upgraded to a Warning for tonight. This will include most of the Piedmont. Lows tonight will dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s in the Warning area. The only exception will be in the urban areas where lows will be a few degrees warmer. Regardless, most areas will see their first 32 degree reading in the Warning area. There will be some lingering cirrus in the lee of the mountains for a time tonight. However, most models suggest that the skies will clear between 03z and 06z leading to better potential. In addition, winds are expected to become light after 06z, with good radiational cooling. Therefore, scattered frost can be expected in the rest of the region as lows dip into the mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 3). A Freeze Watch has been issued for all counties for Saturday night.

The lows on Saturday night are expected to dip into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Thus, a widespread freeze is expected. Generally clear skies and light wind with frost points (dew points) in the 20s will lead to a fairly long duration freeze for most areas. With the winds going to light (less than 6 mph) very good radiational cooling will lead to at least scattered frost as well. So, the double whammy of a freeze and frost will definitely end the growing season.