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A Heat Advisory remains in effect areawide until 8 PM Tuesday night as heat indices climb between 105 to 109. Practice heat safety, such as hydrating well, limiting outdoor time, and having quick access to air conditioning.

Hot, mostly dry conditions to continue through mid-week, with daily highs likely in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

A late week pattern change may lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms and more seasonable temperatures north and east across the Four State Region.

Discussion

Afternoon water vapor imagery continues to show the Four State region in a large pocket of dry air underneath an upper-level ridge that continues to help keep chance of rain out of our near-term forecast. Due to the continued hot and dry conditions associated with this ridge, the Heat Advisory has been extended areawide through 8 PM Tuesday night. As heat indices climb between 105 to 109 areawide, with localized higher values possible, practice good heat related safety, such as hydrating well, limiting outdoor time, and having quick access to air conditioning.

While the subsidence from the ridge in addition to the dry air mixing down in the afternoon will help to limit the extent of extreme heat impacts, the current oppressive heat pattern will continue through at least the middle of the week as the upper-level ridge slowly creeps southeastward towards us. The existing Heat Advisory will most likely be extended through midweek for portions of the region. Expect temperatures to remain seasonably warm in the upper 90s to lower 100s, with the lows in the mid to high 70s. A weak cool front may bring some relief from the heat for our northeastern zones on Thursday into Friday (low-to-mid 90s), but east Texas and adjacent zones will remain warmer than average.

By the end of the work week, most medium and long range models are in agreement that this oppressive pattern we've had for the last week and a half will start to break down as the uppper-level ridge retrogrades back west. The extent to which this ridge will retrograde remains unclear, however most models show increasing chances of chance of rain associated with afternoon convection east of I-49 since those areas will no longer be under the wrath of the subsidence.

Over the weekend, long range guidance continues to show a transition to more of a meridional flow overhead as the region is positioned southwest of a trough between the ridge to our west and an amplifying Bermuda High. This and a possible summertime cool fropa will help to cool us down to more seasonable (low-to-mid 90s) and increase shower and thunderstorm chances areawide.