Synopsis
Conditions are favored to trend drier over the weekend with near-seasonal temperatures. High pressure then builds over the area next week, bringing continued dry weather and well-above average temperatures along with Moderate HeatRisk.
What is an Area Forecast Discussion?
Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 11 passages since the 9:40 AM discussion. See every revision.
Short Term
Showers and thunderstorms are persisting but mainly along the western half of the forecast area (Olympic Peninsula and Island County). This activity will persist before decreasing in coverage into the evening. For tonight, drier weather is expected as the upper- low responsible for thunderstorms lifts north into BC. Minimum temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 50s.
Baggy troughing in the 500 mb levels Friday and Saturday as the aforementioned upper-low continues to track well into BC and Alberta. Can't rule out lingering showers (15-30% chance of rain), primarily over the Olympics and North Cascades on Friday but conditions are favored to trend drier, especially into Saturday. High temperatures will be right around seasonal averages with highs in the lower 70s to near 80 F and overnight lows in the 50s. Daytime highs along the coast will be about 10 degrees cooler - in the 60s.
Long Term
Guidance has the upper-level pattern into early next week featuring the return of high pressure across the region. A sharp warm-up in temperature is expected as highs top out 7-10 degrees above average for Monday and Tuesday. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is favored during this time. There's disagreement in guidance regarding the evolution of the pattern midweek onward. the American global model and Canadian ensembles are hinting at upper-level ridging persisting across the PNW with upper- troughing offshore. The the European model resembles are similar in ridging over the PNW but also over the offshore waters of the NE PAC, dissimilar than its the American global model and Canadian counterparts. Nonetheless, well-above average temperatures are favored in the long-term forecast with no major signal for precipitation.
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