What has changed
Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Anne Arundel County for Tuesday morning's high tide. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all the waters for Tuesday.
What is an Area Forecast Discussion?
Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 17 passages since the 10:29 AM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday with a strong frontal passage.
A few chances for rain through the weekend, but no hazardous weather expected between Wednesday and Sunday at this time.
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1. Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday with a strong frontal passage.
Shortwave ridging aloft should limit thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. 18Z NUCAPS data showed relatively steep mid-level lapse rates which may result in an isold severe thunderstorm, however, relatively low 850 mb dewpoints suggest coverage will remain very sparse this afternoon into this evening. A quiet period is anticipated this evening, before the first round of showers and thunderstorms associated with an approaching cold front arrives after 09Z Tue.
A sharpening trough associated with a deepening upper low and surface low over western NY and LK Ontario is expected to promote strong height falls and provide large scale forcing for upward vertical motion. Multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through the day into the evening. Strengthening mid-level winds will result in an increasingly sheared environment to support severe thunderstorms in a moderately unstable environment. While some intense rainfall rates are expected, the progressive nature of thunderstorms should limit the threat of flash flooding. Convection should start exiting the area after 00Z Wed as the cold front crosses the area.
KEY MESSAGE 2. A few chances for rain through the weekend, but no hazardous weather expected between Wednesday and Sunday at this time.
The upper-low over the northeast CONUS will linger through Friday before finally pulling off to the northeast. As a result, there will be non-zero rain chances each day, primairly areas further north and east. Friday could be dry for all, but still a bit of uncertainty regarding exactly when the upper low departs.
A broad upper-level trough will begin to form over the Ohio River Valley over the weekend. As this trough tracks east, cloud cover & precipitation chances will begin to increase, particularly between Saturday evening and Sunday as the low tracks offshore and towards the northeast. Severe probabilities look low at this time, with a pretty weak wind field aloft. Nonetheless, weekend showers are possible with this system should the synoptic setup continue to trend toward development over the Midwest.
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