Messages
Above average temperatures persist this week, with rain chances returning Wednesday and Thursday.
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Revised in 3 passages since the 2:26 PM discussion. See every revision.
Discussion
Upper ridging continues over the Rockies and Plains, with some weak embedded shortwaves coming over top of the ridge today and tomorrow. The higher heights will push further north on Wednesday, ahead of a stronger shortwave coming over top of the ridge on Thursday. After a brief period of northwesterly flow, upper ridging builds back into the region for the weekend. Many of the ensemble members have a stronger trough starting to track along the international border on Monday, bringing us southwesterly flow aloft. However, a cluster of around 35 percent of the long range ensemble members keep the 588dm meter nosing up into ND and the troughing much less impressive. At this point, a more active pattern and cooler temperatures look like they will at least hold off until next week.
. Heat wave continuing and rain chances mid-week.
One of the weak embedded shortwaves coming over the top of the ridge has started to produce some showers and thunderstorms in or near north central ND. SPC meso page has decent 1000 to 1500 J/kg of ML storm energy and shear around 40 knots, but with very weak forcing, and extremely warm mid-level temperatures, the cells that are developing are struggling. CAMs have that trend continuing with the next weak shortwave arriving later this evening, and this seems reasonable. Our northwestern counties could see a few sprinkles this afternoon and evening, but substantial precipitation will hold off until Wednesday/Thursday as the blend-of-models forecast probabilities of at least a tenth of an inch of rain finally rise above 50 percent. the European model EFI continues to show a signal for heat continuing through the weekend, and the blend-of-models forecast probabilities for temperatures over 95 degrees are over 70 percent for Wednesday. Likely will need heat headlines of some sort again Wednesday so will continue to monitor.
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