What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 2 passages since the 12:56 PM discussion. See every revision.
Dangerous heat through Tuesday with heat index values of 105 to 110+ degrees most areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.
There is a low to medium chance for thunderstorms through Tuesday night. Gusty winds and localized flash flooding may occur at times.
After Tuesday, near normal temperatures with more tolerable humidity levels will be in place for the remainder of the week.
(Rest of today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
The main concerns continue to be heat and storm potential.
Regarding heat, skies have become mostly sunny in the wake of overnight showers and storms. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s this afternoon with HX values well into the triple digits. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in place for our far western counties with a Heat Advisory for the remaining counties west of the Plateau. Tuesday will be the hottest day as the hot ridge from out west bulges eastward and we get some pre- frontal compressional warming. Actual temperatures may touch triple digits for some sites with HX values topping 110 for many areas. We are leaving the headlines the same for tomorrow, but some of the advisory areas may reach into extreme criteria for a couple of hours in the afternoon.
Regarding storms, the atmosphere was pretty well worked over last night, but there will certainly be recovery this afternoon. The question is forcing. No major forcing is evident for this afternoon, but some isolated storms cannot be ruled out with possible lingering low-level boundaries. A better chance for storms will come in tonight as developing storms across the Midwest race down our way in the evening and overnight hours. There is a lot of uncertainty how many storms will make it this far south along with the timing if they do. We have maintained low to medium chance of rain for tonight, similar to recent the high-res rapid-refresh model solutions. Please note, any storms this afternoon through tonight still have the potential to produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding.
Scattered storm potential will continue Tuesday into Tuesday evening as heat and humidity peaks ahead of a cold frontal zone. The deepest moisture and better dynamics will be moving off to the east through the day, but low level forcing should be strong enough along the front to initiate at least scattered storms during the afternoon and evening. As usual, gusty wind and heavy downpours will be a concern.
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026
Tuesday evening's frontal passage will usher in drier and less humid air, and we will definitely feel it on Wednesday with highs in the 80s and dew points dropping through the 60s. The reasonable temperatures and humidity along with dry conditions will stay with us through Friday.
Looking ahead to the weekend, it looks like unsettled conditions will develop with a medium chance for showers and storms.
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