Short Term Forecast Southcentral Alaska
A shortwave trough rotating around the north side of the larger upper low, currently positioned just east of Kodiak Island, resulted in scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms over the northern Gulf and coastal areas overnight. This trough will lift over the Kenai Peninsula a bit later this morning with showers trying to spill over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. May see a few persevere, resulting in some sprinkles or a brief shower, but overall most of inland Southcentral will see decreasing chances for precipitation today. However, the coastal zones along the Gulf and Prince William Sound will continue to see these scattered showers persist today and Saturday as the upper low and associated long-wave trough move across the Gulf. Showers may taper briefly before moving back in as the low approaches tonight. By Saturday morning, the low will have moved into the northeastern Gulf. allowing showers to wind down along the coast as off-shore flow takes over. Snow levels will stay fairly consistent around 2500' as the low translates across the Gulf, so will still see rain changing over to snow at higher elevations.
A front will move across the Alaska interior Saturday morning. Colder northwesterly flow will help to dry things out, but models are hinting that the front could squeeze out some light precipitation of the Upper Susitna and Copper Basin. However, overall confidence is low (20-40%) that any precipitation out of this frontal passage will amounts to anything too impactful. Cooler temperatures will move in behind this system with low temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s for most of inland Southcentral for Sunday morning.
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3).
Showery conditions will continue across Southwest Alaska, Alaska Peninsula and portions of the central/eastern Bering Sea today as residual low pressure lingers over the area. Rain is expected to be the primary precipitation type during the daytime hours, however, overnight temperatures may dip below freezing, allowing for any precipitation to fall as snow or a rain/snow mix. Small craft winds will persist along the eastern Bering and southern Alaska Peninsula (including waters south) as cold air advection remains in place today. Benign conditions expected through most of the weekend for Southwest Alaska until the next front moves in Sunday afternoon.
A gale force front tracking through the Western Bering Sea and Aleutians is expected to continue toward the Central Bering tonight into Saturday morning where it will weaken nearly in place. Behind it, a developing compact low from the North Pacific will track northeast, passing the Adak and Atka area Saturday morning. As it catches up to the degrading front, the features will merge in the Central Bering and continue to press the weakening ridge downstream toward Southwest Alaska. Saturday will be relatively quiet for Southwest Alaska, but by Sunday afternoon, the Bering system will reach the Southwest coast where rain, snow, and south to southeasterly flow returns.