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Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Return Friday into the Weekend
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Revised in 4 passages since the 1:31 PM discussion. See every revision.
Discussion
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8PM this Evening. The areas of interest are the storms that will move in from Wisconsin and over Lake Michigan into the area. Additional development ahead of the line is possible with remnant boundaries in the current unstable high shear environment. The highest threat for severe thunderstorms will be along and west of US-131 with lower confidence further east as instability decreases.
All hazards will be in play with effective shear values around 50 knots, ML storm energy values increasing to 3000 J/kg, and 0-3km SRH values around 100 to 200 m2/s2. Overall guidance hasn't had a great grasp on thunderstorm development and evolution. We are in a high risk low confidence situation. If storms are widespread through this afternoon and clear this evening, the rest of the night should be largely dry. If the environment isn't worked over we could see additional development overnight.
Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Return Friday into the Weekend
As the shortwave responsible for today's thunderstorms moves east, pressure heights increase with dry conditions expected through most of the week. Temperatures will largely be in the 80s each day with lows in the 50s and 60s. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Friday into Saturday with another trough. Chances may linger into Sunday depending on how fast the trough clears the area.
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