What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 9 passages since the 10:55 AM discussion. See every revision.
Persistent onshore flow will bring near-average temperatures with varying degrees of morning clouds and afternoon sunshine for much of the next week. A series of weak fronts will bring notable chances for light rain and drizzle to portions of the Washington and north Oregon coasts Tuesday and next weekend, while Friday is likely to be the warmest day.
Monday afternoon through Sunday. There has been very little change to the forecast today. The large- scale pattern remains fairly steady through the next week with the region wedged between upper-level troughing over the Gulf of Alaska and upper- level ridging over the Rockies and Central Plains. In general, the weather locally will be typical for the mid-summer: morning clouds followed by increasing afternoon sunshine, seasonable temperatures, and largely dry conditions, but with some variations as the strengths of these two dominant features change relative to one another.
Upper ridging wins out today as heights aloft have risen marginally. Morning stratus has dissipated with mostly clear skies and seasonably warm high temperatures expected in the 60s to low 70s on the coast and mid 80s within the Willamette Valley. On Tuesday, an upper shortwave passing to the north will tilt the scales in favor of upper troughing, sending a weak front toward the coast resulting in cooler temperatures across the region and chances for light rain or drizzle along the coast and Coast Range. Temperatures are also forecast to be a few degrees cooler than today as cloud cover may persist across the region through the afternoon hours.
Wednesday into Thursday, the upper-level ridge strengthens slightly, increasing heights aloft locally and again tipping the balance toward dry weather, though smaller shortwaves along the flow will keep temperatures in the low 80s for the interior lowlands. On Friday, upper high pressure spreads farther west into the region, increasing heights aloft locally and allowing for warmer temperatures. Daytime temperatures are forecast to peak in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast and upper 80s for the interior lowlands. Despite this trend, onshore flow will continue, limiting the risk for hazardous heat. Minor HeatRisk is favored for the entire region on Friday, with 20-40% chances for Moderate HeatRisk in urban and suburban areas from Salem north to Vancouver, WA.
By the weekend, there is higher uncertainty in the evolution of the upper-level pattern, but many ensemble members depict more pronounced troughing returning to the Pacific Northwest, favoring cooler temperatures and further chances for rainfall. The details of timing and potential rainfall amounts remain fuzzy at this lead time, but those near the coast or within coastal terrain will be the most likely beneficiaries of any rainfall, with chances increasing to the north. -36/03
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