Plaincast

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Smoky conditions continue, but will thin for some of Friday. This will allow for hot temperatures once again in our southern areas.

Two rounds of showers and storms are expected Friday. Severe weather most likely in the afternoon/evening. A quarter to half inch of rain possible where rain falls

Smoky conditions return over the weekend and another system will move through early next week with more chances for showers and storms.

Discussion

For the rest of the day, unseasonably warm and smoky conditions will persist across the Northland. Thick wildfire smoke will continue to limit visibilities. While previous forecasts highlighted gusty winds over Lake Superior, observations show winds have remained under ten knots. As a result, the active Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisory have been cancelled. As we head into tonight, skies will remain mostly cloudy with smoke lingering.

During the early morning on Friday, warm and moist air moving into the region will trigger an initial round of showers and storms. This convective activity will feature modest instability of 1000 to 1500 J/kg and wind shear of 25 to 30 knots. Dry low- level air will restrict rainfall totals to a tenth or two of an inch. These morning storms will likely weaken, allowing southwest winds to develop and push the thickest smoke northeastward, bringing clearer skies to southern counties. This will lead hot temperatures to build across the south, where heat headlines may be needed as heat index values climb into the 90s and approach 100. By late afternoon, a cold front moving southeastward will erode the capping inversion aloft. This will trigger a second, more potent round of severe thunderstorms. Powered by substantial instability of 1500 to 2500 J/kg and intense deep-layer shear of 40 to 50 knots, these storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. More moisture will be available, yielding rainfall totals of a few tenths of an inch. Unfortunately, these beneficial rains will track south and east of the active wildfires in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness Friday evening.

Following the cold fronts departure, high pressure builds in, bringing dry and sunny conditions for Saturday. However, post-frontal northwesterly winds will likely pull thick wildfire smoke back into the Northland, which may keep high temperatures cooler than currently forecast. Sunday will start warm and mostly sunny, with temperatures rising into the 80s to near 90 degrees as winds shift back to the southwest. Relative humidity levels will drop into the lower 30 percent range, elevating fire weather concerns. By Sunday evening, cloud cover will increase ahead of our next major weather system.

A strong cold front is projected to sweep through the region late Sunday night into Monday, bringing a threat of severe storms and much-needed precipitation. The primary concern with this system will be a sharp wind shift from southwest to northwest on Monday, with winds increasing to 30 miles per hour and potentially higher as the event nears. These strong, gusty winds could create near-critical fire weather conditions as they sweep across the Northland. High temperatures will drop back into the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing comfortable, seasonable weather and a welcome reprieve from the heat. Dry and clear conditions are expected to round out the middle of the week as high pressure takes control once again.