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Elevated fire weather conditions through this evening

Gradual cooling and moistening trend through the upcoming weekend

Short Term

Lingering stratus around the Monterey Bay has eroded as of this writing, however the cooling trend continues today as a result of increased onshore winds and the deepening mid/upper level trough off of the Pacific Northwest coast. The increased winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening as near critically dry conditions persist across the interior and higher terrain of the region. Wind gusts are expected to reach 25-35 mph in the favored gaps and passes. Please see the Fire Weather section of the AFD for additional details.

The marine layer is forecast to deepen to around 1,000 feet overnight, resulting in better chances for seeing low clouds develop along the coast and into the coastal adjacent valleys. That said, there is a low probability of mist and/or drizzle late tonight and into Friday morning. Low clouds that do develop will retreat back to the coastline by mid-to-late morning.

By Friday afternoon, the cooling trend will continue with temperatures dropping to slightly below seasonal averages. Thus, we are expecting upper 50s to 60s near the coast, upper 60s to middle 70s just inland, and lower 80s to near 90 deg F (the warmest interior spots). Friday night, low clouds are more likely to reach into the coastal adjacent valleys and potentially into the inland valleys as the marine influences become better established. This will also increase the potential for mist and/or drizzle near the coast. However, probabilities are not high enough to include drizzle in the official forecast.

Long Term

Temperatures will be similar to Friday through much of the weekend with slight day-to-day fluctuations depending on the depth of the marine layer. We continue to monitor tropical and monsoon moisture that is forecast to spread across the Bay Area and Central Coast late in the weekend into early next week. Tropical Storm Elida is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a hurricane by 5 AM Friday (tomorrow). This system is forecast to move out into the open Pacific and not directly impact the region. However, high pressure placed over the Intermountain West this weekend will advect moisture from Elida and monsoon moisture northward brining an increased in mid-to-high level clouds on Sunday and beyond (this the most likely scenario). The lacking ingredient is still instability! Be sure to keep up to date with the latest forecast information over the coming days.