Plaincast
What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Revised in 12 passages since the 10:24 AM discussion. See every revision.
Above normal temperatures continue into Saturday
Critical to near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and Central Coast due to very dry conditions and weak offshore flow through Saturday
Pattern change expected early to mid next week with periods of breezy onshore winds and light, accumulating rain
The Red Flag Warning for the North Bay Interior Mountains was allowed to expire at 11 AM this morning as winds speeds continue to diminish. However, critical to near critical fire weather conditions prevail across the higher elevations of the Bay Area and north Central Coast through Saturday due to low relative humidity values.
Today remains on track to be the warmest day of the week as high pressure dominates the weather pattern aloft with areas of Moderate HeatRisk, especially near the coast. Interior areas will peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Coastal areas will remain mild to very warm in the 70s to mid 80s as weak onshore winds are forecast by early afternoon.
Tonight, lower elevations are forecast to cool into the 50s to lower 60s under mostly clear skies. The higher elevations are once again forecast to be warm and only cool into the 70s to lower 80s (attributing to the low relative humidities).
For Saturday, an increase in onshore winds and lack of offshore flow will result in a slight cooling trend in most areas. However, areas of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast to continue with temperatures forecast to be some 10-20 degrees F above seasonal averages.
More of a zonal flow returns to the region on Sunday. This will result in temperatures cooling to near seasonal norms with the return of a marine layer and increased onshore winds. Upper level troughing deepens off of the West Coast through early next week, resulting in below average temperatures returning to the region. A cut-off low is forecast to develop off of the Bay Area and north Central Coast by Tuesday and is currently projected to push inland across southern California by Wednesday afternoon/evening. This will bring a slight chance to chance of rainfall to the region Tuesday through early Thursday morning. There is also generally a less than 15% chance of thunderstorm on Tuesday when the core of the cut-off low remains just off of the Central Coast. However, the trajectory of the cut-off low will largely impact which areas receive the most rainfall and/or any thunderstorm development. Thus, uncertainty remains relatively high. So be sure to check back on the forecast as we will likely gain more clarity in the forecast over the coming days.
What is most clear, the cool down! As the 500 mb clusters generally agree on the troughing off of the West Coast through much of next week. As best said by my colleague, "Bottom line: expect a pattern change to occur next week with below normal temperatures, potential for light rain, breezy to gusty onshore winds, and a low potential for thunderstorms."
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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub