What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 5 passages since the 12:04 PM discussion. See every revision.
Thunderstorms: Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances expected over the weekend.
Heat: Minor to moderate heat risk through the weekend, transitioning to a major heat risk early next week with heat indices potentially reaching 105 degrees.
(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 1204 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
Broad ridging will remain in place across the Southeastern CONUS today with the main upper level trough remaining well to our northeast. This should keep rain chances more isolated through early evening across Central AL with mostly clear skies. A weak tropical disturbance slides into the Eastern Gulf Friday into the weekend and is still showing low chances (<20%) of development. At the least, this should increase the rain chances for the eastern half of Central AL each afternoon Friday through Sunday as this system begins to be absorbed into the upper level trough along the East Coast over the weekend.
As we go into next week, the upper level ridge shifts slightly eastward and could build into Central AL as the low level ridging remains in place. This would lead to lower rain chances and a warming trend. Guidance suggests temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s by Tuesday into Wednesday with heat indices reaching into the 100-105 range. However, this may be overdone a bit in the forecast this far out. We'll keep heat impacts as a message for early next week and if temperatures continue to trend into the mid 90s as they are now, we could reach heat advisory criteria toward the middle of next week.
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