What has changed
The Heat Advisories are no longer in effect.
Thunderstorms continue to impact portions of the southern Jersey Shore.
What is an Area Forecast Discussion?
Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 12 passages since the 4:48 PM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
The Heat Advisories are no longer in effect.
Smoke from Canadian wildfires will infiltrate the area today, potentially lingering into the weekend.
Thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of southeast New Jersey through this evening.
The first half of the weekend is shaping up to be active with showers and thunderstorms expected for Saturday into Saturday night along with warm and very humid conditions. Storms have the potential of becoming severe and also producing heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.
Discussion
KEY MESSAGE 1. The Heat Advisories are no longer in effect.
Temperatures on Friday will remain slightly above normal for mid- July. However, dew points are expected to be more comfortable only in the mid 50s. Thus, heat indicies will not be far removed from the actual air temperature.
KEY MESSAGE 2. Smoke from Canadian wildfires will infiltrate the area today, potentially lingering into the weekend.
Latest the high-res rapid-refresh model/RAP smoke guidance continues to depict that a slug of dense near surface smoke from the wildfires originating over western Ontario will spread into the region tonight. Skies will likely be quite hazy with visibilities projected to fall between 1 to 3 miles overnight, before improving some on Friday. With more of a northerly surface flow expected overnight and into early Friday, this may suppress the worst of the smoke south of our area by mid-day. However, as flow shifts to more southerly by Friday night, guidance is hinting that surface smoke may return into the weekend.
While the smoke is anticipated to result in visibility restrictions and poor air quality around the region, to what degree is more uncertain. Given current observations from upstream, this smoke event is not anticipated to be as severe as the June 2023 event, but this will be difficult to predict days in advance.
Latest guidance is a bit more optimistic about the smoke clearing out somewhat on Friday.
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