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Rain/storm chances through Friday. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds possible.

Slightly below normal temperatures expected through the end of the week before triple digit heat indices returns Sunday into next week.

Short Term

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Rain/storm activity for today will shift out of our southern forecast area with chance of rain extending into northern Oklahoma. A persisting cut-off low across western Texas over strong low-level gulf moisture transport within low-end moderately unstable air will develop isolated showers and thunderstorms in our area. Not expecting any severe convection or much downdraft winds due to weak DCAPE values but some isolated areas could get excessive rainfall from heavy rainfall rates and/or training mainly across our Texas counties. The excessive rain risk is marginal and will need to be monitored. Increasing cloud cover in the lower through mid-levels will maintain below normal temperatures this afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to 90 in a few areas while upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints will keep our air humid & muggy. Showers may linger but winding down across our south after sundown although will be very isolated with decreasing instability.

Short Term

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

With the main jet stream flowing across the northern U.S. & Canada, the upper low over western Texas will remain closed and cut-off in weak flow through the short term keeping chance of rain in the forecast at least into Friday with more uncertainty for Saturday. For Friday high surface pressure building across the gulf region will start tightening the isobars across our area making our south winds more breezy. Meanwhile the closed upper low expands more northward across the Southern High Plains (TX & OK Panhandles) increasing mostly rain chance of rain (30-40%) during the morning hours across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. By Friday afternoon instability will have increased for isolated convection with those 30-40% chance of rain expanding into central & northcentral Oklahoma. Not expecting any severe storms other than some gusty winds. For Saturday some uncertainty due to model inconsistencies with a persistent "wet" (over the last 2 runs) the European model solution expanding the closed upper low across our southwestern forecast area. DESI Grand Ensemble solutions also suggest a chance for a "wetter" forecast for late Saturday. Although this may change with subsequent forecasts but for now will trend with the drier the blend-of-models forecast solution which is closer to the the regional model & the American global model solutions keeping the upper low just touching our southwest forecast area. chance of rain will be restricted to mainly western north Texas through early Saturday morning where an enhancing low-level jet maxima will be in place with a dry forecast through the rest of the day.

A persistent temperature forecast for Friday with only a slight warming trend Saturday with temperatures approaching more seasonably normal for mid-July.

Long Term

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 137 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Models show the upper high continuing to build into the region the rest of the weekend into next week. Models show the upper high could be centered over or very near the region by the middle of next week. This will lead to a drier and hotter forecast. There will be less potential for shower/storm development. Temperatures are also expected to climb above normal with highs back in the upper 90s and triple digits. Heat index values will also be on the rise with heat indices approaching or above 105 possible across portions of the area by early next week.