What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 13 passages since the 12:45 AM discussion. See every revision.
Moderate risk for sneaker waves along the Lost Coast and Mendocino Coast through Wednesday.
Elevated fire danger today and Tuesday for interior areas due to breezy afternoon winds.
Hot temperatures return late week into the weekend.
Coastal stratus likely to form each night and clear each afternoon through at least the middle of the week.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are likely for the interior areas, while near to slightly above normal coastal temperatures are likely continue through Wednesday. Breezy afternoon winds elevate fire danger in eastern Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake counties. Hot interior temperatures return late this week.
Warmer coastal temperatures may continue through Wednesday this week. This is highly dependent on the persistence of stratus into the afternoon and how early northwesterly winds start. A weak marine inversion will allow for at least partial, if not full, clearing in the afternoons. The Mendocino Coast will see breezier afternoon winds which will support closer to normal temperatures.
The troughing pattern has also brought breezy afternoon wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the interior areas, mainly in the higher elevations and channeled terrain (such as Clear Lake and the Trinity River valley). Low afternoon relative humidities in Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake Counties along with these winds brings an elevated fire weather threat.
There is high confidence in high pressure rebuilding over the area later this week. the blend-of-models forecast is showing moderate to high probabilities for high temperatures in the triple digits for most interior valleys starting Friday and continuing into next week. Currently, minor to moderate HeatRisk is expected. /JB/JJW
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