What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 10 passages since the 2:40 AM discussion. See every revision.
Temperatures warming above normal again for the weekend with minor to locally moderate heat risk.
Breezy afternoon/evening winds today across Mendocino, Lake and Trinity counties. Local areas of low humidity will elevate fire danger, especially in Lake County.
Possible thunderstorms across the interior next week.
Cooler inland temperatures will bottom out today as an upper level low moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest. The low will also bring some breezy winds to the interior. Above normal temperatures are expected to return for the weekend with another chance for thunderstorms next week.
The upper level low moves onshore at the Pacific northwest. Cooler weather continues to occur through today with continued breezy conditions this afternoon and diminishing into this evening. The lower heights and cooler temperatures aloft have weakened the marine inversion which has allowed the coast to mostly clear out this afternoon. Into tomorrow the upper level low is forecast to make its way northeast into British Columbia which will enable temperatures to warm some for the interior. The warming temperatures aloft will likely make stratus more prevalent through the weekend. The flow is expected to be fairly light, although the 700 mb winds are generally out of the south and this should keep smoke to the north and east of the area unless a new fire develops to the south.
For the weekend high pressure strengthens and edges slightly to the west. This is expected to bring warmer temperatures to the inland areas. Highs are expected to be back in the mid 90s to around 100 in the warmer valleys. This will bring more minor to locally moderate heat risk.
Starting Monday, monsoonal moisture is anticipated to make it's way north and west into the area. At this point there doesn't appear to be a trigger to get any thunderstorms going and instability is fairly limited on Monday and Tuesday. For now it looks like Wednesday has the best chance to see some thunderstorms in Trinity county. However it would only take a small shift in the timing of a shortwave or increased instability to have some more thunderstorms. This will need to be monitored closely.
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