What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 4 passages since the 1:47 PM discussion. See every revision.
Heat continues through Wednesday, but dew points in the 60s should make it a little more tolerable than the past few days.
Rounds of elevated wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest are expected throughout the week, but chances for surface smoke look low.
precipitation chances increase late Wednesday into Friday.
The cold front has moved through, allowing for some relief from the oppressive Tds we saw early this morning. Northwesterly flow has brought elevated wildfire smoke back in from the Pacific Northwest. This will continue to be the case throughout at least the first half of the week. Models indicate that the majority of this smoke will remain elevated, but surface smoke isn't out of the question for far western Minnesota. Surface wise today, temperatures have once again reached 95 or better early this afternoon across southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin where a Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening. High temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal in the upper 80s/low 90s with a few low chances of spotty afternoon showers and storms. chance of rain may need to be increased Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, but for now any impacts look minimal. the blend-of-models forecast did introduce some 15-20% chance of rain for Wednesday, which appears reasonable.
We don't see any widespread/organized precipitation chances until Thursday. A trough moving along the top of the ridge centered over the southern Rockies looks to dig southward across the Dakotas/Minnesota before potentially evolving into a cutoff low late in the week. Widespread rainfall and thunderstorms are expected late Thursday through Friday. With precipitable water increasing to 1.6 to 1.8", we would expect these to hopefully bring the region some much needed precipitation. expected rainfall totals range from a quarter inch for central Minnesota to an inch or better to the south. This system looks to meander around the western Ohio River Valley into the weekend, which would allow our western Wisconsin counties to see continued low shower chances into the weekend. Following the bulk of the rainfall Friday, temperatures do fall back into the mid 80s, but this looks to be shortlived once again with 90s possible early next week.
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