Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Medford (MFR) · issued Monday, July 27 at 4:50 PM PDT.
Revised in 3 passages since the 2:33 PM discussion. See every revision.
Aviation
28/00Z airport forecasts. good visual flying conditions will prevail through the airport forecasts period for all locations except for areas from the Coast Range westward. Marine stratus returns to the coast tonight, resulting in marginal visual flying conditions/instrument-only flying conditions conditions that will persist into Tuesday morning, then improve to good visual flying conditions by Tuesday afternoon. Wildfire smoke impacts will be limited to areas north of roughly Crater Lake/Chemult/Christmas Valley. Expect a similar pattern for the next several days with gusty winds developing in the afternoons, then easing after sunset. /BR-y
Prev Discussion
Seasonal weather continues through the week, with a slight 5-degree warmup on Friday.
East side areas may see early morning smoke accumulation, with afternoon breezes helping to clear that smoke out.
Gusty winds over the Pacific Ocean, some inland areas are possible over the weekend.
DISCUSSION. An unimpactful weather pattern remains in place, keeping typical summer weather in the forecast for the week ahead. Southwest flow aloft between Pacific low pressure systems and a continental high pressure ridge shows little movement in the short term forecast. Flow aloft continues to look overall dry through the forecast period. There are a few minor details of interest through the week ahead.
Calm overnight conditions may allow for morning smoke accumulation in Lake and Klamath counties as well as parts of Modoc County. Daytime westerly breezes look to be enough to prevent constant accumulation, but this pattern does look to continue through at least Wednesday.
A shortwave trough remains in deterministic imagery for Thursday, as well as a slight increase in atmospheric moisture. Some ensemble imagery is showing isolated thunderstorm development east of the Cascades on Thursday afternoon. These members represent about 5% of the ensemble, so thunderstorm activity is hardly expected.
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