Medford (MFR) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend with today being the warmest

Elevated fire weather conditions for eastside areas and northern California through the weekend

Below normal temperatures for much of next week

Rainfall chances increase early next week with the coast having the highest probability for measurable amounts

Discussion

The upper level pattern is noted by a ridge of high pressure over the region. This ridge is helping maintain the well above normal temperatures we have been experiencing and will continue to see today. For example, Medford is forecast to reach ~86 for a high today which puts us about 16 degrees above normal. Yesterday we ended up being about 19 degrees above normal in Medford. The upper level high will move eastward tonight resulting in cooler temperatures through the weekend, but still above normal by about 5-6 degrees. Additionally, as the high moves eastward, a dry cold front will pass through the region tomorrow. Its unlikely to see much--if any--rainfall but parts of Coos & Douglas County could see a few light rainfall showers that may squeeze out a trace to hundredth of an inch.

A stronger system moves into the area on Monday. Model consensus stalls the system out over the Pacific right before moving inland becoming a cut-off low. Then a split flow pattern develops with this low sagging south from the main flow, and eventually making its way inland over southern California. This path is not favorable for rainfall for much of the forecast area. The coast will likely be the main area to see rainfall accumulation Mon/Mon night before the low sags south, but as the low sags south we could see wrap around moisture and rainfall develop over northern California and some eastside areas middle parts of next week. Westside valleys will likely miss out on much--if not all--of the rainfall associated with this system. Will need to reevaluate if the system changes trajectory, but at this time we are not anticipating this to be a heavy rainfall producer for the forecast area. Areas along and near the coast could see around tenth of an inch of rainfall Monday into Monday night. Then light amounts of upwards near a tenth for eastside areas through middle parts of the week.

Overall, this is a low impact forecast, but the above normal temperatures and breezy wind speeds combined with low humidity through the afternoon hours will lead to at least an elevated concern for fire weather conditions. This will likely be the biggest potential impact in the forecast if a fire starts. Fortunately, we are not seeing any significant wind speeds which should help limit fire spread if we happen to get any new fire starts.