What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 3 passages since the 12:14 PM discussion. See every revision.
Continued isolated thunderstorms today, with temperatures several degrees below normal.
Increased storm activity Friday through Sunday, with a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.
Storm chances lower early next week with drier and warmer conditions expected.
Broad, large UL ridge covers much of the CONUS with the cores of the ridge located across UT and the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Closer to home and more relevant to our weather is an UL low over Central TX. This feature will be a major factor in the days ahead. For today, it will actually limit (but not eliminate) convective potential for the central third of the forecast area, as dry, subsiding air is pulled southward ahead of it. The western third of the forecast area will see increased rain chances where increased moisture has combined with some UL support related to the low. Lastly, Hudspeth County and the Sacramento Mountains may also see increased storm coverage from the low. Heavy rain will be the main concern with the highest threat for flash flooding expected for areas near the AZ border into the Gila Wilderness.
The UL low/wave will make very slow progress westward, and it will enhance our thunderstorm chances tomorrow through Sunday with chances peaking on Saturday. PWs will increase from 1-1.3" to 1.25-1.35" area wide. Thus, heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main concern with storms over the weekend. The most likely timing for storms will be each afternoon and evening, but given UL forcing, rainfall will be possible at any time throughout the weekend.
As we go into next week, the UL low will shift into Mexico while continuing to weaken, and the UL high will resettle farther south, pushing drier air into the forecast area. PW values will drop below an inch by Wednesday. Monday will probably be another active day, especially toward the International Border, but chances will decrease some on Tuesday and then drop very low on Wednesday. The the blend-of-models forecast has most locations completely dry by Wednesday. Highs will continue to be below normal, but as the drier air begins to filter into the latter half of next week, we'll see temperatures climb.
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