Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service El Paso (EPZ) · issued Monday, July 27 at 5:30 PM MDT.
Hot temperatures persisting for the rest of the week, running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs 100 to 107 each afternoon, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses.
Rain chances will be limited to the high elevations and Southwest New Mexico this week. Isolated storms will be capable of brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding.
Some moisture from Arizona and Sonora will work into southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday, and may bring a one-day uptick in thunderstorm chances there.
Discussion
Upper high pressure will continue to spin broadly over northern NM and the TX/OK Panhandle today through Thursday. Upper high begins shifting towards the Four Corners region Friday and throughout the weekend. Expect thunderstorm chances each afternoon with a focus over the area mountains (Gila region and Sacramento mountains) and western locations bordering Arizona. Tuesday looks like it could have an uptick in storm activity in southwestern NM Tuesday evening. CAMs are suggesting a large complex of storms in northwest Mexico which will push in better moisture to the southwestern portions of the forecast area later tonight. This push of moisture may help set the stage for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Looks like an area of surface convergence is possible as well. Areas of flash flooding will be possible. 0-6km shear values in this area will be around 30-35KT which is sufficient for some organized cells. Wednesday and onward we keep our storm chances with a focus over the area mountains and western locations.
As far as temperatures go, the area will remain HOT the next 7 days. Temperatures will generally be 7-10 degrees above normal. A Heat Advisory is in effect for several lowland locations including Las Cruces, Hatch, the El Paso metro, and the lower Valley today and tomorrow. Triple digit readings will be common across the lowlands for the week ahead. May need to extend the Heat Advisory potentially through Friday. High temperatures will be close or will reach Heat Advisory criteria (max temperatures greater than or equal to 105F) during this time. This will be an extended heat wave, so please take the heat seriously.
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