Milwaukee (MKX) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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A lake effect shower or two may brush the southeast later today, but otherwise most locations should remain dry

Below-normal temperatures will linger into this weekend

Update

Backed off precipitation chances for today in the east given radar trends and latest models. The lower level flow should stay primarily northerly, keeping the bulk of lake effect showers away from the lakeshore counties. Not out of the question for a brief sprinkle or light shower in the far southeast later today, but most places are expected to remain dry. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track for the remainder of the day.

Short Term

Lake effect precipitation continues to develop down Lake Michigan tonight. The main band of precipitation is likely to remain offshore through the rest of the night. Thus have lowered chance of rain to 10% or less across southeastern Wisconsin. Breezy northwest winds are expected to continue which consequently helps keep the bulk of the precipitation offshore. There are a few isolated showers to our north stretching from Manitowoc to Wautoma that likely developed along just enough upper level PVA with a quick moving short wave trough aloft. As the upper level trough pulls away these showers are diminishing. With temperatures still above freezing whats left of these showers should be rain and will clip the far northern areas of our forecast area before ending. Otherwise predominately dry weather is expected through tonight until the next chances for Lake effect move inland.

This morning (roughly 6 am) through this afternoon will be the next chance for the Lake effect rain to drift westward. With the potential for the light precipitation to move inland during the coldest time of day there will be a potential for a few flurries to mix in. chance of rain are around 30-40% during this time for far southeastern Wisconsin. By late Friday, both the breezy winds and lake effect precipitation chances should come to an end for southern Wisconsin. The low pressure system that has been drifting northeast through the eastern New England states will finally pull far enough into the Atlantic to help shift the tight pressure gradient out of the Great Lakes Region. The high pressure to the west in the Canada and the Northern Plains then starts to have more of an influence over Wisconsin. As the wind weakens and uniform northwest winds on both sides of Lake Michigan begin the lake of the lake effect will push to the eastern shoreline before ending Saturday afternoon.

Long Term

Across the CONUS a ridge will set up across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region while a cutoff low traverses through the southern Plains and into the Mid Atlantic. With the surface high pressure from Canada settling in across the Plains/Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday, dry and cold weather is expected. As the colder air mass begins to move in, overnight lows are expected to fall into the low to mid 20s for inland areas and mid 20s to low 30s along the lakeshore. Sunny skies with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s are expected through the weekend and into early next week.

Ridging aloft and the surface high will linger across the central CONUS through mid week. Both features will slowly be moving east with time, but it will be very gradual. The surface high should be east of Wisconsin by midday Monday, which will bring a return to southwesterly flow and some slightly warmer air. This will allow temperatures to start recovering through the week back into the mid 50s with model guidance trying to hint temperatures continuing to warm into Friday. Before we can get to the end of the week, there is growing consensus on a low pressure system developing in the rocky mountain west and moving northeast toward Lake Superior Thursday. This low will be accompanied by an upper level trough and the subsequent cold front that will move across Wisconsin. The passage of the cold front could bring rain back to the area. There is still uncertainty in the timing and track of the upper level trough. Which will impact the development of the surface low in the lee of the rockies and its path. So chance of rain remain fairly low around 30%.