What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Los Angeles (LOX) · issued Friday, September 11 at 2:46 AM PDT.
Revised in 15 passages since the 10:55 PM discussion. See every revision.
Synopsis
A cooling trend will affect the region through the weekend with max temperatures dropping to below normal by Sunday. The sticky tropical air will finally exit the region by this weekend. Marine layer clouds will likely return to many coastal areas.
Short Term
Heat advisories are in effect today for the coastal areas south of Pt Conception as very warm overnight lows will combine with todays highs which are 5 to 10 degrees over normal.
The ridge that brought the very high hgts will flatten out and hgts will fall to a about 588 dam. At the surface there will be weak to moderate onshore flow in the E/W direction. The N/S gradients will feature weak offshore flow in the mornings and weak onshore flow in the afternoons.
This will kick off a three day cooling trend with most max temperatures falling 4 to 8 degrees today, 3 to 6 degrees Saturday and 2 to 4 degrees Sunday. By Sunday Max temperatures will mostly be in the upper 70s to 80s across all of the coasts/valleys or 3 to 6 degrees below normal.
The marine cloud layer is advancing down the coast and there are signs of an eddy. Marine layer stratus will slowly increase in coverage through the period, although the very warm sea surface temperatures will have an inhibiting effect.
The real good news is the the humidities will fall back to normal. PWs over southern LA county ydy were near 1.70" and will fall to 1.3" today and then to .85" Saturday.
The decrease in available mositure will eliminate the threat of afternoon convection.
Long Term
Not much change through Wednesday, with zonal flow continuing at the upper levels. Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue with light northerly offshore flow each night through morning. There will likely be some morning low clouds each day with the greatest coverage across the Central Coast. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly clear.
A good degree of mdl confusion creeps into the forecast later Wednesday into Thursday as the mdls struggle with the handling of some energy coming out of British Columbia. The surface pattern is also in question as there is wide assortment of possible values ranging from 1mb onshore to 6.5 mb onshore. A broad sampling of all of the mdls results in a forecast of 2 to 3 degrees of warming, but this is a low confidence forecast.
No significant wind issues are expected, although there will be the usual gusty southwesterly winds each afternoon across the mountains and deserts and the typical near advisory level evening gusts across the SW corner of SBA county.
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