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Dangerous heat stress will persist into mid-week.
Increasing rain chances will begin to limit heat stress potential later in the week, especially across North Mississippi and Arkansas.
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Revised in 4 passages since the 12:09 PM discussion. See every revision.
Discussion
Through Tuesday: Excessive heat will remain the chief focus through tomorrow as we remain on the northern periphery of a surface high over the Gulf. Heat indices peaking above 105F will be common areawide, with readings in the 110-115F range possible. A combination of Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning will remain valid across the area through tomorrow. Isolated daily shower or thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out mainly across south MS, but coverage will be quite limited.
Wednesday through next weekend: By Wednesday, a backdoor front will sink into the area from the northeast, then stall through much of the remainder of the week. While the front alone won't promise relief from the humid conditions for most of the area, parts of north and northeast MS will see lower, less oppressive dewpoints during part of Thursday and Friday. However, what might prove more impactful on conditions from Wednesday on will be increasing chances/coverage of convection across our area. High prevalence of clouds/rain should help shave a few degrees off high temperatures in many areas, helping to keep heat indices in check in more areas. With upper flow becoming more northerly and northwesterly during this time frame, we will see potential for one or two convective complexes moving into the area or developing over the area. However, by the end of the work week, an upper shortwave looks to become organized enough that an actual front will develop across the Central Plains and push into the area around the late Friday/Saturday time frame. This will result in continued higher rain chances across the area heading into the weekend. It is uncertain how much progress this front will make through the area before stalling, but depending on the placement of the front, it will likely keeping higher than average rain chances around across much of the area.
Before clouds and rain begin to impact the heat, portions of south/west MS and northeast LA will likely still face high heat stress into the daytime Wednesday. Advisories or warnings may need to be extended for some portion of the area. /DL/
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