Messages
A warming trend will occur through the end of this week, with increasing heat stress a concern this weekend into early next week.
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Revised in 3 passages since the 1:13 PM discussion. See every revision.
Discussion
The upper ridge over the southeast CONUS will help keep weather conditions quiet across our forecast area. Sky conditions heading into the overnight period will be mostly clear across much of the area as clouds continue to gradually build from the west. Nighttime lows will dip into the low 70s areawide. Quiet weather conditions will prevail across the area looking head into Friday with daytime highs peaking into the low to mid 90s. This combined with dewpoints in the 70s, will allow for heat index reading values to climb in the triple digits. Several areas along and south of the MS River across portions of southeast MS could see heat indices exceed 105 degrees.
Dangerous heat stress will be the primary focus for the extended forecast especially this weekend into early next week. This is primarily due to west northwest flow which will help reinforce an 850 mb thermal ridge over the area. No changes have been made to the heat graphic for this weekend into next week as an "Elevated" risk for dangerous heat will continue to be advertised for our entire forecast area. A heat advisory will likely be needed for portions of our forecast area this weekend, and likely expanded areawide early next week.
There is a chance that portions of the "Elevated" risk could get upgraded to a "Significant" risk for dangerous heat where heat indices could exceed above 110 degrees as we get closer to Tuesday. An extreme heat warning may eventually be needed for portions of the area for Tuesday.
Regarding the rain chances, some guidance is starting to show a little bit of weakening in the ridge this weekend which could allow for some convection with sufficient organized flow. While details remain uncertain, a few strong to marginally isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out this weekend, especially across portions of east and northeast MS. Confidence is still too low for details but generally the timing looks to be Saturday into Sunday if it does occur. There may be potential for more activity in the east by the middle of next week as a digging upper trough flattens the ridge briefly, placing our area on the eastern flank. This could set up a brief northwest flow regime that leaves us more vulnerable to convective systems. Scattered showers and storms will be possible for areas south of Hwy 84 heading into Thursday. /CR/
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