Albuquerque (ABQ) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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Heat continues across eastern and central New Mexico through the weekend where there is an increased risk of heat related illnesses. Temperatures could tie or exceed record highs.

Isolated to scattered storms may threaten frequent lightning, gusty winds, hail, and heavy rainfall through Sunday. A surge of rich monsoon moisture next week may increase the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding Monday through Thursday.

Short Term

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A moist outflow boundary moving west over eastern NM has kept low level easterly flow in place with surface dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. Exceptionally dry air remains in place over central and western NM with surface dewpoints in the teens and 20s. This dry air will spread southeast into more of the region today with a 593dm H5 high drifting southeast into southern NM. Max temperatures will be very hot again with many record highs expected, including the ABQ metro. Stronger zonal flow aloft (40-60kt) will approach from the Great Basin by late this afternoon and force strong moisture advection into western NM. precipitable water are forecast to rise from near 0.25" to near 1" this evening along the NM/AZ border. CAMs show scattered showers and storms forming along the higher terrain in eastern AZ then moving swiftly east into western NM. Replacing the dry air will come at the cost of strong downburst winds along and west of the continue Divide this evening. DCAPE values are progged between 600 and 1200 J/kg with the large inverted-V profiles. A large convective outflow may surge east into the RGV between 8PM and 10PM with gusts of 35 to 45mph. Blowing dust may reduce vsbys if the boundary materializes.

Saturday will be very hot again as the H5 ridge drifts east into southeast NM. More record highs are expected. Whatever moisture was able to advect east into NM will battle drier mid and upper level air lingering on the northern edge of the upper high. CAMs show meager convection with high DCAPE still leading to gusty downburst winds. The upper high will move east into west TX Saturday night and allow 700-500mb layer follow to become more south/southwest over the region for Sunday.

Long Term

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

precipitable water continue climbing Sunday and Monday with increasing coverage of showers and storms expected, especially for central and western NM. Forecast confidence on the coverage of storms with beneficial rainfall is still low to moderate. The the American global model and the European model both show a weak ridge extending westward into southern NM from the main upper high farther east over TX. This pattern may choke off the deeper moisture and lead to greater stability over parts of the area. An upper level trough approaching from the west may provide larger- scale ascent to overcome any stability issues by Monday.

The rest of next week looks downright wet with surprisingly good consensus from extended models. The upper high shifts into the southeast U.S. while an upper level low/trough develops along the West Coast. precipitable water are also shown soaring to near record values for mid September. Widespread rainfall amounts between 0.50" and 1.50" are shown during the 4-day period from Monday to Thursday on the latest the blend-of-models forecast with 90th percentile amounts >3". Given the lackluster performance of monsoon bursts this summer, forecast confidence will remain low to moderate until we get much closer.