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Moderate to major heat risk will impact many lower elevations of New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days. Flash flooding will be possible in areas that receive multiple days of heavy rainfall or repeated rounds of thunderstorms.

Short Term

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The 18Z weather balloon data is mostly unchanged in the last 24-hrs at KABQ with a precipitable water of 1.15", H5 temperatures near -3C, and weak steering flow. The H5 high center over northeast NM is keeping a lid on storm development east of the central mt chain with only isolated activity across the northern and western high terrain. Any cells that do form through late today will still be capable of producing small footprints of heavy rainfall amounts >1.5". A subtle shortwave trough and weak surface boundary moving across eastern CO today will spawn a well-defined areas of storms in that area tonight. This convection is likely to force a stronger surface boundary southwest into northeast NM late tonight. The boundary has trended stronger on recent model guidance. A few showers and storms are also possible overnight as the outflow boundary surges into the area.

The surface boundary will be draped along the east slopes of the central mt chain Tuesday morning while rich moisture and weak steering flow persist beneath the monsoon high. Robust convection is shown by various CAMs to erupt along the central high terrain where surface convergence is enhanced from the lingering boundary. Hi-res ensemble model expected rainfall distributions show heavy rainfall likely from any storms (>1.5"). Steering flow with the main high centroid over eastern NM will be slow and erratic toward the north and west. Convective outflows then force storms into nearby lowlands to include the Santa Fe metro southward along the RGV. Confidence was high enough to issue a Flood Watch Tuesday from the Sangre de Cristo Mts southwest across parts of central NM into the western high terrain. Heavy rainfall may occur in the ABQ metro as well depending on how outflows converge. The heat will be a concern Tuesday with many areas in the upper 90s to low 100s, so Heat Advisories are also in effect.

Long Term

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 206 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Convective outflows and remnant MCVs from the storms Tuesday will provide additional lift for storms Wednesday. There is no notable change in the placement of the H5 high center over eastern NM and little change to mid level temperatures or steering flow. The NBM90th percentile expected rainfall envelope trends a little lower Wednesday but many footprints are still >0.75" in several areas around the higher terrain. These amounts will likely trend higher as hi-res CAMs get into the mix. More Heat Advisories are also likely for parts of the area.

By Thursday, the H5 high is shown drifting west into central NM while strengthening to near 598dm. This will most likely result in a slight downtick in storm coverage with a return to greater coverage of Heat Advisories. A repeat in convection over eastern CO Thursday may force another boundary southwest into eastern NM Thursday night. This would spark another uptick in storm coverage Friday and perhaps Saturday as the H5 high center drifts west into northeast AZ.