Plaincast

Messages

Mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward each day with a risk of lightning, small hail, gusty outflow winds, and localized flash flooding.

There will be a low risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars today, then at least a moderate risk Friday and Saturday.

Short Term

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 134 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The latest water vapor loop shows a large and well-defined H5 low centered near Midland, TX with several bands of vorticity rotating counterclockwise around the feature. Some of the dry air that was embedded along the Front Range yesterday has wrapped itself into the low. A weaker inverted trough over central AZ is embedded within the larger monsoon moisture plume stretching from northern MX into the Great Basin. Forecasting will remain very challenging through early next week as these complex airmass features merge into the monsoon plume reorganizing over the southern Rockies.

For the rest of today, showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall will continue forming over the high terrain then move south and west into nearby valleys and highlands through the evening (18Z KABQ precipitable water is 0.91"). Steering flow is beginning to slow and veer more northeast to southwest as easterly flow on the northern edge of the H5 low enters southeast NM. Overall hi-res models and ensemble CAMs remain consistent with showing additional showers forming on the central mt chain tonight then drifting west into the RGV through the predawn hours. expected rainfall is roughly 0.10-0.20" from this activity overnight.

Friday and Saturday are still advertised as the most active days across the region with precipitable water increasing >1.1" in all areas while the H5 low drifts northwest into far southeast NM. Deformation on the northwest side of the H5 low along with abundant moisture on southeast low level winds will allow storms to develop along the central mt chain Friday. The 12Z HREF and REFS LPMM expected rainfall shows the heavier cells developing from around Ruidoso to Corona, Clines Corners, and the southern Sangre de Cristo Mts, including the high terrain of western NM (locally >1"). A Flood Watch is in effect for the Ruidoso area burn scars Friday. Showers and storms are shown lingering over eastern NM Friday night with better forcing from the H5 low. Saturday looks similar to Friday but with the higher the blend-of-models forecast 90th percentile expected rainfall mainly along and south of I-40 (locally >0.75"). Steering flow becomes more east-west as well. Forecast confidence is low to moderate Saturday given how complex the pattern is and the convection Friday will affect Saturday.

Long Term

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 134 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

By Sunday and Monday, a 594dm H5 high developing near northern CO is likely to become the more dominant influence on the monsoon pattern over the desert southwest. However, there are noteworthy differences into early next week with how guidance handles the evolution of the H5 low currently drifting into southeast NM. The location of the H5 low circulation and placement of the deeper moisture will impact the coverage, intensity, and steering flow of showers and storms Sunday and Monday. The remnants of Tropical Storm Elida in the eastern Pacific are also shown moving northward toward the CA coast during this period. The broader circulation across the region will become more southeast to northwest by Tuesday and Wednesday while the H5 high drifts southeast toward TX. For now, the the blend-of-models forecast median 48-hr expected rainfall Sunday and Monday favors the heavier rainfall along and west of the central mt chain then even farther north and west Tuesday and Wednesday. temperatures are shown trending much warmer for eastern NM with the H5 high strengthening to near 597dm over TX.