Cincinnati (ILN) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.

Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Cincinnati (ILN) · issued Friday, September 11 at 6:42 AM EDT.

Revised in 3 passages since the 2:42 AM discussion. See every revision.

What has changed

Included mention of heavy rainfall on Saturday.

Messages

After a mostly dry Friday, showers and storms are expected on Saturday.

Warming temperatures next week, with the potential for storms returning.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1) A few showers are moving east across the southern portions of the ILN forecast area early this morning, but overall precipitation chances have diminished. High pressure over the Great Lakes will provide slightly drier boundary layer conditions for Friday, though theta-e aloft will extend a little farther north into the ILN forecast area. Forcing is limited, but a few showers could develop at times through the day in the southern ILN counties.

As the high moves east, the flow over the Ohio Valley will shift, allowing a warm and humid air mass to flow back into the area. This will set up Saturday as the next day with thunderstorms, as an incoming shortwave interacts with unstable air over the region. The overall pattern, including the plume of 2" precipitable water values, will favor the eastern and southern sections of the ILN forecast area for heavy rainfall and possible flooding. This matches the expectations in the ERO from WPC. Could not totally discount a marginal threat for strong storms, with some mid-level flow that could support storm organization, but very narrow storm energy profiles suggest the threat will be minimal. Thus, heavy rain and flooding will be the main concern for Saturday.

While the shortwave (and its associated forcing) will clear the area by Saturday night, a surface cold front will remain upstream. Sunday may be dry (with just a slight chance of precipitation in the northern forecast area) but it will also be warmer.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Behind a cold front, Monday will be a little cooler than the weekend, but a warming trend will then ensue for the next few days. Seeing agreement in the models that a warm area of high pressure will be in place on Tuesday, with the main frontal / convective zone staying just north of the high over the Great Lakes. At some point, the pattern will support this zone moving southward into the ILN forecast area, perhaps by Wednesday and especially by Thursday. As such, chance of rain increase during this time frame.

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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub