What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 11 passages since the 12:05 PM discussion. See every revision.
A slight cooling trend begins today and continues through Wednesday, bringing temperatures down to around 5 degrees above average by midweek. Daytime temperatures rise again for Thursday through next weekend and we could see the highest temperatures of this summer so far by Saturday. Some monsoonal moisture aloft later in the week into the upcoming weekend may also provide a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for our mountains and deserts.
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE. SAN DIEGO. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
This afternoon. Temperatures range from a few degrees higher to a few degrees lower than at his time yesterday. There was a weak coastal eddy last night and low clouds from a shallow marine layer are persisting at the beaches of San Diego County. High resolution models indicate that a weak coastal eddy will likely return tonight.
A shallow marine layer will persist through the forecast period with night and morning low clouds mostly restricted to the coastal areas and western portions of the San Diego County valleys.
The large-scale pattern will remain quite stable, with high pressure centered over the southern Rockies/Desert Southwest and low pressure centered over the Gulf of Alaska. Through Wednesday, the high pressure over SoCal will weaken slightly in response to a vigorous shortwave trough moving inland to our north. The resulting height falls and weak cyclonic flow aloft will allow the marine layer to deepen a little and the low clouds to spread a little farther inland during the nights and mornings. Temperatures will be generally lower across the region but will be more noticeable nearer to the coast. By Wednesday, temperatures will range from a few degrees below normal in some locations west of the mountains to around 5 degrees above normal in the low deserts.
For Thursday through next weekend. The high pressure center will shift to the southwest and build over the Desert Southwest. This will bring significantly warmer conditions to SoCal, we are likely to see the highest temperatures so far this summer. Models indicate that Saturday will likely be the hottest day, with daytime temperatures ranging from 5-10 degrees above normal in the coastal areas to about 15 degrees above normal in parts of the inland valleys and deserts. Temperatures will range from the high 70s to the mid 80s near the coast, the low 90s to low triple digits in inland OC and SD County, low triple digits to about 110 in the IE, 80s to low 90 in the mountains, up to 113 in the high deserts and up to around 120 in the low deserts. The building high pressure will also make the marine layer shallower and restrict the low clouds to the immediate coast during the nights and mornings. The heat will likely abate slightly for next Monday as the high pressure weakens. Confidence in the coming high temperatures is relatively high due to the stable pattern and good agreement among model solutions.
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