What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 3 passages since the 11:32 AM discussion. See every revision.
One last day of heat alerts with temperatures cooling near average by Friday into much of next week. Increasing monsoonal moisture will move into the region through Friday, with elevated chances over the mountains and locally into the deserts. Moisture decreases by the weekend into the first half of next week with minor chances over the mountain ridges, increasing again by late next week.
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE. SAN DIEGO. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
Showers and weak thunderstorms are seen moving from NE to SW over Arizona and SE California. Some of these showers may reach the lower deserts by the early afternoon. Increased moisture and instability is seen in our sounding from this morning, aiding in a better set up for storms to chance of rain over the mountains. Rain rates may near one half inch in some cells along the mountain desert slopes. A similar environment is seen on Friday, with elevated chances over the mountains and locally into the deserts. Pressure heights will fall by Friday into the weekend, providing slight cooling with high and low temperatures closer to average. The marine layer will be patchier with clouds forming near the coast nights and mornings, with better clearing each afternoon.
High pressure becomes centered over the Rockies and Central Plains, pivoting monsoonal moisture further to the east this weekend. This will lead to minimal chances for precipitation over the mountains during this time into the first half of next week. The pattern stays fairly similar through Tuesday, keeping temperatures closer to average with a healthy marine layer near the coast and far western valleys each night.
Models show a subtle increase in moisture by next Wednesday, potentially into the latter half of next week. Looking beyond this, models show a bit of spread on the monsoonal moisture feed. The major factor will be where the area of high pressure will be placed. Some models have this further east into the Southern Plains, which would shunt moisture further out of our region, or closer to the Central Rockies, which would favor a greater moisture set up. the blend-of-models forecast shows high temperatures sticking near average with 80s and 90s for many areas below 6000 feet with warmer/cooler temperatures for the lower deserts and along the coastal areas.
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