What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Central California (HNX) · issued Friday, November 13 at 4:25 AM PST.
Revised in 2 passages since the 9:42 PM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Wind Advisory for the Mojave Slopes and Desert and Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Isabella Friday morning through Saturday morning.
A major cooling trend takes place Friday into the weekend and next week.
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 10 AM Friday through 4 AM next Tuesday with up to 18 inches of snow expected above 6,000 feet in total.
Multiple storm systems on Friday through Friday night, Sunday night through Monday, and Wednesday through next Thursday bring much needed rain to the Central Valley and Sierra Nevada foothills.
Discussion
Todays highs were once again much above average; Fresno and Merced both set record high maximum temperatures today with highs once again in the 80s. Bakersfield and Hanford were just shy of reaching their record highs; Bakersfield recorded a high of 87 degrees while Hanford was 82 degrees like Fresno. Gusty winds occurred this afternoon over the coastal ranges adjacent to the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and towards the Grapevine and the south end of the valley. Some of the higher peaks in these areas continue to observe southeast winds 20-25 mph with gusts 40-45 mph at this time. These are due to the approaching low pressure system which remains off the coast of Southern California.
The first in a series of storms is poised to arrive Friday morning. Precipitation begins Friday morning and lasts until at least the evening. Moderate to heavy rain with snow above 6,000 feet will continue over the Sierra Nevada until late Friday night before tapering off early Saturday morning. Expect winds to pick up across much of the region during the day on Friday but will subside late Friday night. The probability of at least 0.25 inch of rain is 60-70 percent for the San Joaquin Valley from Fresno northward; otherwise most locations to the south will receive closer to a tenth of an inch. For at least one inch of rain, there is a 50 to 60 percent chance for this amount over the Sierra Nevada foothills with a much higher likelihood for at least 2 inches in the Sierra Nevada at around 6,000 feet, mainly Tulare County northward. As for snow, there is a high probability of over a foot from Friday morning until Saturday morning above 7,000 feet in the Sierra.
Saturday will be relatively calm and dry, but precipitation returns late Sunday with the next system. This system will produce additional rainfall, with snow once again at 6,000 to 7,000 feet over the Sierra Nevada through Monday and Monday night. Thus, will allow the Winter Storm Warning to continue until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Also, expect seasonal temperatures this weekend, but daytime highs will cool to below average by early next week.
Much cooler temperatures, or around ten degrees below average, will occur much of next week. We get a brief break in precipitation on Tuesday, but the third system arrives by Wednesday morning. Chances for rain and mountain snow will then last until at least next Thursday. Although, at this time, the bulk of the precipitation takes place Wednesday afternoon and evening.
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