What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 3 passages since the 12:31 PM discussion. See every revision.
Low-medium thunderstorm chances continue Thursday early evening and again Friday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds possible with any stronger storms. Severe weather not expected.
Drier and hotter conditions return by this weekend into early next week.
(Through tonight ) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected yet again this afternoon, albeit with less coverage than Wednesday. While low chance of rain will exist areawide, greatest storm coverage is expected across S OK this afternoon. Here, ongoing convection in TX is forecast to move north into the area with new development possible as it enters SE/S-Central OK. These storms will continue to expand northward toward NE OK before diminishing by late evening. As has been the case, severe weather is not expected, but locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible. Faster storm motions should reduce the flash flood threat compared to yesterday. While mostly dry conditions are expected overnight, a few showers cannot be ruled out as another area of vorticity (associated with the mid- upper low) passes over the area. Low temperatures will be similar to Wednesday night. perhaps a couple degrees warmer. in the lower-mid 70s.
(Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
The area will be in the western fringes of high pressure by Friday. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible again, though coverage should lessen somewhat as heights begin to increase. In general, 15-30 percent chance of rain were maintained areawide Friday afternoon and early evening. Precipitation likely concludes with loss of daytime heating. Mid-upper level ridging strengthens through the weekend with increasing S-SW surface flow providing increasing temperatures. Once dewpoint values are factored in, heat indices are forecast to again exceed 100-105 degrees for parts of the area early next week. A few model solutions try to bring a shortwave and associated frontal boundary close to the area by mid next week, which could result in slightly lower temperatures and perhaps additional precipitation chances. However, even in these scenarios, ridging stays close by and any reprieve may be short lived. The latest the blend-of-models forecast keeps chance of rain below mentionable levels with high temperatures in the mid-upper 90s during this time, which seems reasonable for now.
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