What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 7 passages since the 8:38 AM discussion. See every revision.
Expect daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms this week with day to day variability in coverage and strength. High temperatures will be 2-6 degrees above normal through the middle of this week then warm to 7-12 degrees above normal late this week into next weekend.
Cumulus and towering cumulus are beginning to form along the terrain. Suitable moisture is in place with satellite derived precipitable water around 1.0 to 1.75 inches, higher values Sells westward. High pressure overhead is centered over New Mexico and western TX today leading to southeast flow in the mid levels helping to pull moisture in from the Gulf of California. As surface heating continues today and low level drying occurs, an inverted V sounding will develop leading to DCAPE values around 1500 to 1700 J/kg. There will be a fair bit of mid-level shear as well, 25 to 35 knots, with decent updraft helicity thus there is the potential for strong, longer- lived storms to develop. Storms today will be focused to the Arizona/ Mexico international border and the Arizona/ New Mexico border. Stronger storms more likely be located along the Arizona/ Mexico international border. CAMs continue to have storms beginning to develop between 12 and 2 pm, initially on the higher terrain then moving west to northwest.
Tomorrow, most of the ingredients seen today will be present. Mid level shear will remain elevated at 25 to 35 knots, DCAPE of 1500-1800 J/kg, and precipitable water between 1.0 to 1.6 inches. Storms again will be focused to the Arizona/ Mexico international border and the the Arizona/ New Mexico border. Wednesday, chances for storms and showers begin to diminish as the high pressure center begins to move westward. By Thursday, high temperatures will be 7 to 12 degrees above normal leading to Major to Extreme HeatRisk. Therefore, an Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for most of southern Arizona (with the exception of the higher terrain) from Thursday morning through Sunday evening. At this level of HeatRisk, everyone should take proper precautions to prepare for the heat as anyone is at risk for heat related illnesses if not staying hydrated or cool. Friday and Saturday look to be the hottest days in the forecast during this stretch, with a 55% to 65% chance of 110 degrees for locales Tucson westward both days. Chances for storms and showers returns early next week as the center of high pressure oscillates eastward.
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