What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 11 passages since the 2:38 AM discussion. See every revision.
Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across southeast Arizona with an increased risk of flash flooding. Gusty winds and blowing dust will also be possible with any thunderstorm. Chances for thunderstorms will continue through the coming week with day to day variability in location and severity.
My concern when hoisting a flash flood watch 24 hours in advance during the monsoon is what happens the day before and will there be considerable debris clouds starting the morning to mess with the flash flood day forecast. Well that happened this morning, an OH NO moment, with a considerable cloud deck and very light showers/virga across the area. This cloud deck has been slowly eroding this afternoon with storms developing rather quick in the cloud breaks in a rather moist and unstable atmosphere. The upper air pattern today is rather chaotic today with upper low over western TX and an upper high centered over NW AZ bringing a northerly diffluent flow aloft across the area. In addition, there is an MCV west of Organ Pipe Ntl Mon that is developing storms in western Pima county.
precipitable water across the area ranged from 1.3" near AZ/NM border to almost 2" over western AZ. The unstable atmosphere combined with the above normal moisture will bring an increased flash flooding threat to most of the area. Hourly rainfall rates from some of the strongest storms could exceed 2"/hour so some of the flash flooding could be considerable on a localized basis. Flash Flood Watch continues for Graham/Cochise counties through 9 pm, and for Pinal, Pima and Santa Cruz counties until 12 am Friday. The threat for severe storms is limited with isolated gusts up to 55 mph possible.
Activity diminishing overnight with likely considerable cloud cover around Friday morning. Likely to have another slow start to the convection, with CAMs hitting the Intl border with heavy rain.
Thunderstorm chances continue daily this weekend and into next week with day to day variability. Ensemble models show the upper level ridge becoming centered again over or near the Four Corners region next week keeping an active monsoon pattern across the area.
High temperatures over the next 7 days will remain below normal.
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