What has changed
Surface visibilities were lowered through Friday due to wildfire smoke.
What is an Area Forecast Discussion?
Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 6 passages since the 1:59 PM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Smoke from active wildfires across south-central Canada will continue to impact our region through Friday.
Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chances of showers and thunderstorms increasing Friday night and Saturday.
Discussion
Key Message 1. Smoke from active wildfires across south-central Canada will continue to impact our region through Friday.
A west-northwest flow aloft will continue to support a considerable amount of smoke from Canadian wildfires across the eastern Great Lakes region through Friday. Vertically integrated smoke from the the high-res rapid-refresh model showing the worst smoke conditions will be through this evening. This model showing a gradual northeast to southwest decrease in smoke "denseness" tonight, with a gradual return of smoke during the day Friday, as the environmental flow starts to shift more to the west-southwest, bringing the smoke back across the region. A continued west-southwest flow should mostly eliminate the smoke across the region by this weekend.
Key Message 2. Unsettled weather returns this weekend, with chances of showers and thunderstorms increasing Friday night and Saturday.
A potent shortwave trough will dig across the Great Lakes region Saturday. An initially broad surface low will deepen as it tracks just north of the region, with a deep southerly flow advecting abundant moisture into the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop into the region late Friday night into Saturday morning as a warm front lifts through. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will form along and ahead of a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Increasing instability and modest wind fields may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms.
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