Plaincast
What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Revised in 5 passages since the 2:25 PM discussion. See every revision.
Chance of showers with gusty northwest winds this evening.
Turning colder tonight with low temperatures Saturday morning reaching the low to mid 30s. This will lead to some areas of frost.
Cooler conditions exist Saturday, then turning warmer Sunday into next week. No rain expected through this time.
High amplitude longwave trough on pace to pivot across the region this evening. Strong cold front attendant to the main height fall center noted accelerating southeast across the local area this afternoon. A few pockets of showers will continue to emerge over the next several hours as the frontal slope and trailing cold air advection engage sufficient resident moisture depth. Improvement in mixing depth within the immediate wake of this front will also provide a greater window for gusts to exceed 30 mph during the evening hours, particularly across the northern thumb. A secondary brief lake effect response likely off lake Huron, as a short window for meaningful shower production occurs within a zone of convergence along the eastern thumb through at least the first half of the night before low level flow veers sufficiently to direct activity offshore. Progressive clearing trend through the back half of the night as the notably colder/drier post-frontal environment gains traction with time. Latest the blend-of-models forecast guidance offers a general spread in projected low temperature Saturday morning ranging from sub-freezing in the Saginaw valley to mid 30s portions of metro Detroit and near the immediate shoreline locations. While a persistent low level gradient may prove more detrimental at times for frost formation, in collaboration with neighboring offices still operating within the end of the growing season, will elect to highlight appropriate frost/freeze headlines based on projected low temperature.
Seasonably cold airmass entrenched to start the weekend period, marked but sub-freezing temperatures at 850 mb. Surface ridging in control beneath prevailing mid level northwest flow affords deep layer dry and stable conditions, translating into a high degree of insolation potential. Despite this, existing thermal profile will simply support highs of lower 50s - or a solid 10 degrees below average. Light winds emerging from the southwest Saturday night as the surface ridge slips east. This may offer some limitation to radiational cooling potential, but with minimum temperatures Sunday morning still arriving in the mid 30s given the magnitude of the existing colder profile. This will afford some areas of frost. Ensuing warming trend starting Sunday as existing low level southwest flow establish a pattern of warm air advection beneath a building upper height field. The strength of the advective process will bring temperatures back closer to average for mid October.
A high magnitude deep layer dry and stable environment will exist through much of the upcoming work week, as conditions remain governed by low and mid level ridging. This ensures precipitation free conditions during this time. Moderating thermal profile magnified by existing upper ridging will lend to above average temperatures throughout this period. Highs mid 60s to around 70 degrees, with minimum temperatures in the 40s.
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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub