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A Heat Advisory is in effect Tuesday afternoon for all of Southeast Texas. Advisories will likely be needed daily throughout the work week as dangerous heat persists with high temperatures in the upper 90s/100s and heat indices in the 106-112F range.

Patchy fog possible during the early to mid-morning hours for at least the next few days.

Notable rain chances look to return over the weekend.

Discussion

Oh I see you're back for another installment of us telling y'all that it's hot! Whelp, pull up a chair, fill up your water bottle, and turn down the A/C, I've got a good one in store for y'all! I'm gonna keep it 100 with y'all. is what Mother Nature told me is ahead for tomorrow. and the next day. and the next day. and the next day. and the next day. After that things become a little bit uncertain because we have a return of notable rain chances over the weekend! Before that though, we gotta get through the heat discussion. I know some will say well it's always hot in the summertime, but let's talk about why this is a little more notable than our "typical" summer heat.

The 596-598 dam mid-level high (the heatdome) has nudged its way into northern TX where it'll remain through at least Thursday. 850mb temperatures will gradually increase each day above the 90th percentile and near 99th percentile at times. The upper level high pushing this anomalously warmer air aloft down to the surface forces it to compress and warm even further, which is how we'll get to these above normal temperatures for most of the work week. College Station, The City of Houston, and Houston/Hobby have only seen 100+ degree temperatures once this year. there is decent potential that we'll be tacking on a couple more occurrences to that stat. So, high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s through the work week. and we haven't even talked about the humidity yet.

Winds at the surface will vary between southwesterly and southerly, which will help keep dew points elevated (low to mid 70s) closer to the coast. Further inland, we should see dew points mixing out into at least the upper 60s to low 70s in the afternoons through the work week. The air temperatures will be high enough though that heat indices will peak near or above the Heat Advisory threshold (greater than 108 degrees) daily beginning Tuesday. As a result, a Heat Advisory will go into effect Tuesday afternoon from 12pm-7pm for all of Southeast Texas (except the barrier islands). This will likely be extended through the end of the work week as we continue on a streak of dangerous heat. To give you an idea of how this week will play out. the Heat Advisory starts on Tuesday, and that's not even the hottest day of the week. Thursday through Saturday looks to be the peak of the heat. There won't be much relief overnight with low temperatures mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. The atrocious humidity overnight will result in occasional rounds of patchy fog in the early to mid morning hours for at least the next few days.

Let's end this discussion on a more hopeful note. In the first paragraph we discussed that there's some potential for rain over the weekend. Rain chances will be slim to none for most of the work week with PW values hovering between the 10th (~1.36") and 25th percentiles (~1.60"). Towards the end of the work week, the heatdome begins to retreat westward, which opens the door for our an upper level trough pushing through the eastern CONUS over the weekend. We've been keeping tabs on ensemble guidance over the past few days for surface low pressure development in association with this trough. There is fairly decent agreement on surface low pressure developing somewhere around the Mississippi River Valley Friday into Saturday. The exact placement is still uncertain and that matters because there will be an associated frontal boundary. Will this front be progressive? Well it's the summertime, so probably not. Will the front push through our area? Same answer. Where will the front stall? Who knows! However, it is something worth monitoring since convergence along the front does increase moisture in our area. thus the rain chances returning! Until then though, we'll have to make it through the triple digit heat.

With heat indices expected to at or above Heat Advisory criteria over the next several days, please keep heat safety at the top of your minds for any plans that you make (especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat-related illnesses, stay hydrated (with water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear loose/light-colored clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don't forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws.