Plaincast

Messages

Widely scattered shower / thunderstorm expected today. Locally heavy storms cannot be ruled out.

A more typical summertime pattern is expected this weekend and into next week with even lower (if any) rain chances.

Heat will build this weekend into next week, possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria by Tuesday. Some uncertainty regarding humidity levels.

Discussion

Southeast Texas remains under the influence on of an area of low pressure over West Central Texas. However, the disturbance's hold on our atmosphere has waned since yesterday. High precipitable water thanks to deep LL S to southeast flow from the Gulf have kept the atmosphere soupy, while mesoscale forcings like the sea breeze boundary and convergence along a stalled boundary remain in place. Mid/upper high pressure is building from the east, acting as a limiting factor to shower/thunderstorm coverage. However, this ridge is unlikely to be suppressive enough to prevent at least widely scattered shower / thunderstorm activity today. As of noon, we are seeing isolated activity develop along and west of the Brazos River. This should be unsurprising to anyone who has taken a look at our precipitable water, which are highest in our western zones. There's also a little more PVA to work with in our western counties. But the other aforementioned mesoscale forcings could allow for convective initiation farther east. So like previous days, we expect daily shower/thunderstorm activity. But unlike previous days, the coverage should be less. Ridging builds further on Friday. But the guidance is still showing a convective initiation signal, particularly along sea / bay breeze boundaries. With enough of an easterly component in the bay breeze, there could be some enhanced shower / thunderstorm activity where convergence maximizes at the bay breeze - sea breeze interface.

Ridging becomes more dominate as time progresses towards the weekend and beyond. This will yield to lower rain chances and higher temperatures. Expect seasonably hot conditions this weekend, with inland high temperatures averaging in the mid-90s and heat indices around 105F. Urban and coastal areas will struggle to drop below 80 at night. The furnace cranks a little more going into next week. Current blend in our temperature grids shows widespread upper-90s by Tuesday/Wednesday, with even a few hot spots reaching 100 degrees. Heat indicies may be near Heat Advisory criteria by then (108-110F). This will be somewhat dependent on dew points. Current forecast shows afternoon dew points mixing down to the low-70s (inland-most areas upper-60s, immediate coast mid-70s). Sometimes the guidance can underestimate mixing and overestimate dew points. The air aloft could be particularly dry on Sunday-Monday (maybe Tuesday) if the global models are correct regarding a "blob" of low 925-700 MB humidity that surges in from the east. So we can't rule out a slightly drier heat than currently predicted. But the heat will be dangerous regardless. Even normal SE Texas July heat is dangerous. Practicing heat safety will be a must.