Plaincast
What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Revised in 6 passages since the 12:15 AM discussion. See every revision.
The wet pattern will continue through the weekend and into early next week, with numerous thunderstorms developing each day. Gusty winds and localized flooding will be possible with the strongest storms.
Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist each day. Highs in the lower 90s will feel more like 100 to 105 due to the humidity.
Morning TBW sounding continues to indicate abundant moisture, precipitable water a little over 2 inches, with slightly stronger southerly flow at around 11 knots. The rest of the morning should remain quiet over land with scattered convection over the coastal waters. Should then see convection develop along the sea breezes and move inland this afternoon with highest chance of rain extending from southwest Florida north across the interior later this afternoon and early evening. Overall forecast looks on track with no changes needed at this time.
Weak surface high pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula for the next several days with light southeast boundary layer flow, which will become onshore near the coast each afternoon. The west coast sea breeze boundary will hold over the coastal counties each day, and will be the focus for enhanced convection during the mid/late afternoon and early evening hours. Generally, thunderstorm activity will develop over southwest Florida by mid afternoon and build up the west coast sea breeze boundary through the remainder of the day. A few storms may be strong with wind gusts of 40 to 50 MPH.
Deep tropical moisture will persist over the forecast area with PCPW values over 2 inches, which will continue the risk for locally heavy rain and flooding of urban/flood prone areas. The additional rainfall will also increase the risk for river flooding across portions of the region, mainly from the Tampa Bay area and south. Temperatures will continue to run several degrees above climatic normals through the period.
Some drier air aloft may advect over the region by the middle of next week which could decrease areal coverage of afternoon storms and the risk for heavy rainfall. At this point, the blend-of-models forecast chance of rain appear too high. although overall confidence in the extended forecast is low.
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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub