What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 9 passages since the 1:42 PM discussion. See every revision.
Increasing rain chances through the weekend. Strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are possible.
Hot and humid summertime conditions continue with heat index values of 100 to 107 daily. Practice heat safety when spending time outdoors.
Convection has wound down for the most part this evening with the northwest low level flow persisting. Overnight into Friday, deeper moisture will move south into the area and this will lead to more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters later tonight moving and spreading onshore. The convection is then expected to continue to develop and move inland during the day Friday. Current forecast looks on track with no changes needed.
Broad high pressure remains over the region today with northwest boundary layer winds continuing. Scattered storms seen across the forecast area this afternoon will continue to move generally east/southeast for the rest of the day. As we head into Friday, a mid-level low is forecast to form right over the state with the surface ridge axis shifting southward as a surface low also tries to develop near the area Friday night. This pattern will bring increased moisture along with higher rain chances, with some hi-res guidance suggesting we'll see coastal showers/storms starting early tomorrow morning. The rest of the day will then feature additional (and slower-moving) storms across the area as light westerly flow continues. The best chances after the coastal morning storms will generally be for inland areas as the two sea breeze circulations collide.
For the weekend into early next week, the mid-level low continues to spin over the state, eventually opening up and moving northeastward as the surface low or trough does the same. This area continues to be marked with a low (20%) chance for tropical development by the NHC and will be closely monitored. Regardless, these features will help increase moisture and rain chances across the region, with waves of showers/storms expected periodically through early/mid next week. As of now, the most likely rainfall totals through the next 7 days are 6-8 inches at the coast, tapering off as you head inland. Overall, the greatest threat for heavy rainfall looks to be Sunday through Tuesday, with more scattered storms on the other days.
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