Tampa Bay (TBW) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.

Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Tampa Bay (TBW) · issued Friday, October 16 at 1:36 PM EDT.

Revised in 7 passages since the 2:33 AM discussion. See every revision.

Messages

Hazardous marine conditions over the eastern Gulf waters are expected over the weekend and continuing into next week.

Moisture will continue to increase with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Saturday.

A cooler drier airmass with below average temperatures will arrive by Sunday and continue through most of next week.

Discussion

The warm dry pattern gets disrupted today as moisture works its way back over the area, clearly evident by this morning's sounding showing the precipitable water value over 2 inches. With increased moisture, daytime heating, and a bit of a sea breeze developing, scattered to numerous showers are expected. Highest coverage will likely be over the interior. WPC has placed the majority of the area in a marginal (1 of 5) risk for excessive rainfall, likely due to the potential for isolated heavy downpours in slow moving storms. Meanwhile a cold front will approach the area overnight before moving through Florida tomorrow . Showers and storms are expected to accompany the front as it moves over the area.

Saturday evening into Sunday, once the cold front has moved south of the forecast area, high pressure will build back in. This will create a tight pressure gradient between the two, which will lead to elevated winds over the area. This will lead to hazardous marine conditions through the weekend and into next week. However, the strong north to northeasterly breeze will help usher in some cooler and drier air. High temperatures are expected to be in mid/upper 70s to low/mid 80s through the forecast period. Low temperatures will be in the low 50s to low 60s. Should be a nice stretch of fall like conditions for the area.

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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub