What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 3 passages since the 1:51 PM discussion. See every revision.
Expect terrain-based showers and thunderstorms each afternoon this week, favoring the San Juans, but spreading north by the weekend.
Localized heavy rainfall will have the ability to produce flash flooding and debris flows in vulnerable terrain, including areas near and downstream of burn scars.
Daytime highs cool throughout the week, returning to near- normal for most areas by Friday.
Persistent high pressure aloft keeps a plume of moisture over much of the West through at least this weekend, potentially beyond. Guidance keeps the most moisture rich part of this plume (in terms of precipitable water anomalies) to our west, but ensembles place precipitable water of 130- 200% of normal over our forecast area this week. The the European model Ens and the American global model Ens have consistently shown differences in the magnitude of the anomalies, with the European model Ens continuing to favor a much more moist setup with max precipitable water closer to 200% at times. This moisture brings daily chances of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening through next week.
Today's afternoon convection has begun along the higher terrain, and will gradually increase in coverage through the afternoon. expected rainfall favors the San Juan Mountains, where increased moisture has allowed for showers and storms during the preceding days. Elevated chance of rain have more northward coverage today than the previous days during this period of increased moisture. However, areas that still have dry lower atmospheres may see more virga showers/rain not reaching the ground mixed with some showers producing measurable precipitation. Each day the moisture will advect further north/northeast, allowing for more widespread chances of showers and thunderstorms by this weekend.
While moisture is a relief for drought conditions, it also creates a risk of flash flooding and debris flows, including over the burns scars of the Gold Mountain, Ferris, and Babylon fires. The hydrology section below discusses this risk in greater detail. These storms can develop quickly, so be sure to monitor the forecast and have a way to receive weather alerts, especially if you are visiting or reside below terrain that is vulnerable to flash flooding, including downstream of active fires.
Temperatures will gradually decrease for the remainder of the week thanks to increased cloud cover during peak heating. Guidance continues to favor another drop in temperatures next week, potentially leading to below-normal temperatures.
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