Indianapolis (IND) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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Scattered light rain showers today, possibly mixed with snow this morning

Dry weather returns this weekend through much of next week

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A strong upper low will pivot across the eastern Great Lakes through early Saturday. maintaining scattered light precipitation and chilly temperatures today. As the upper trough moves away to the east this weekend. dry weather will return with temperatures gradually warming next week as broad ridging aloft and at the surface expands across the region.

Scattered light showers continue to drift south across parts of the forecast area early this morning. A north-south fetch of heavier showers was organizing off of Lake Michigan and extending south along the Illinois-Indiana border across the northwest part of the state. Brisk northwest winds persisted with 07Z temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Central Indiana will remain under the influence of the deep upper level trough over the eastern part of the country today and at least to some degree on Saturday as well. Additional shortwaves will pivot around the flank of the upper level trough maintaining plenty of low level clouds and periodic light precipitation today.

As mentioned above. a pronounced northerly fetch off Lake Michigan has led to the development of a persistent north-south band of rain across northwest Indiana over the last few hours. As the boundary layer cools into the predawn hours. rain is expected to mix with or changeover to snow within a narrow band that should primarily confine itself to immediate downwind areas of Lake and potentially western Porter Counties. A mix of light rain and snow will extend further south and may be able to briefly make it into the northern Wabash Valley largely to the west of KLAF later this morning. aided by another shortwave axis dropping through the region. As low level temperatures modify slowly. the predominant precipitation type should transition back largely to rain into the early afternoon.

Model soundings do show a saturated airmass through about 700mb with modest lapse rates through early afternoon. with slightly drier air filtering into the boundary layer by late day. Expect a healthy stratocu deck to linger across much of the area as a result with the potential for sprinkles or flurries for parts of the forecast area generally to the east of Interstate 65 through mid afternoon. The aforementioned north-south precipitation band will persist in the vicinity of the Illinois-Indiana border into this evening before decreasing flow within the boundary layer enables it to retreat northward. Will maintain at least a small chance for light rain or snow showers over the far northwest parts of the forecast area to account.

As a final shortwave swings south of the region during the second half of the evening. low level flow will back in tandem with drier air gradually advecting into the region overnight. This will result in a slow scattering of low clouds from the west as the night progresses. Scattered to broken stratocu will redevelop on Saturday but should largely remain confined to the northeast half of the forecast area in closest proximity to the departing upper low. Low clouds will linger across northeast counties Saturday night with skies clearing elsewhere as a strong high pressure ridge expands into the area from the west.