What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Little Rock (LZK) · issued Friday, November 13 at 4:27 AM CST.
Revised in 2 passages since the 1:43 AM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
-A cold front has moved completely across the state of Arkansas overnight
-Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in place for Thursday night/Friday morning
-Freeze Warnings will likely be needed for much of the Little Rock forecast area on Friday night/Saturday morning as cold air advection continues to impact the state
-High pressure in the wake of the front will usher in below average temperatures continuing into early next week
-Rain chances return Sunday through early Monday for western and southern Arkansas with most rainfall totals expected to remain between 0.25 to 0.50 inches
Discussion
In the upper lvls, continued northwesterly flow over Arkansas is expected during this period per the state sitting beneath the western flank of a deep trough positioned over the eastern CONUS. Upper lvl convergence and negative vorticity advection will promote large scale subsidence through the tropospheric column. At the surface, high pressure moves into the region in the wake of the cold front and CAA will continue through Friday afternoon before the pressure gradient weakens. However, clear skies and calm winds forecast across the state will create perfect conditions for effective radiational cooling. In response, freeze warnings will likely be needed across most, if not all of the Little Rock forecast area on Friday night/Saturday morning for locations which fail to reach freezing conditions this morning.
In the upper lvls, a ridge axis amplifies into the Midwest region of the CONUS. A negatively-tilted southern stream shortwave ejects over the Four Corners and Southern Plains regions of the CONUS. Weak positive vorticity advection and diffluent flow will be noted over Arkansas Sunday into early Monday. At the surface, the region of high pressure shifts eastward into Mid-Atlantic region of the CONUS. The presence of an inverted surface trough and coastal low pressure center developing along the northwestern Gulf Coast will provide weak isentropic ascent across western and southern Arkansas. Latest probabilistic values signal an event where most locations across western and southern Arkansas will be lucky to tally a half inch of total rainfall with most locations forecast to receive around a quarter of an inch of total rainfall as the deep moisture transport remains well south of the state.
In the upper lvls, a ridge positions over the state of Arkansas during this timeframe. The combination of rising geopotential heights and mid-lvl warming act as a lid or CAP on the atmosphere which prevents any organized precipitation. At the surface, a large region of high pressure positions in the Mid-Atlantic region of the CONUS meandering throughout this region during the period. Increased gulf advection will usher in an airmass which is warmer and contains more moisture overall; however, this moisture will not result into increased chance of rain chances via upper lvl features mentioned above. Temperatures overall during this period will return to values which will be near to slightly above average compared to seasonal normals over this period.
This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. The full Plaincast experience — plain-English summaries beside the annotated original, with the forecast changelog — loads automatically with JavaScript, or open the interactive edition.