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For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Dangerously Hot & Humid Weather Continues Through Mid-Week. Heat Advisories in Effect Today and Tuesday. Heat Indices up to 112 Possible. Heat Advisories Likely and Extreme Heat Watches Possible for Wed

Widely Scattered TStorms this Afternoon and Evening. Isolated Strong/Severe Storms Expected this Afternoon/Evening. Brief Gusty Winds, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Heavy Downpours Possible

Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Tuesday

Strong to Severe TStorms are Possible on Wed Afternoon & Evening

Short Term

Thunderstorm potential to continue into the overnight

A few thunderstorms will possible through around 2 AM Tonight, as an upper wave moves southeast across the area. A few strong storms will still be possible this evening.

Lows in the upper 70s along the coast, and mid 70s inland.

Short Term

Reduced Thunderstorm Coverage Tuesday, Higher Storm Chances Return Wednesday Potential for Isolated Strong to Severe Storms, Especially Wednesday Heat Advisory Tuesday, Likely Needed Wednesday As Well

A cool front will drop southward throughout Tuesday and into Tuesday Night, stalling over southeast GA for Wednesday and likely beyond as well. Guidance is in good agreement with respect to some drier air remaining in place aloft on Tuesday as seen on forecast soundings, which will overall reduce convective chances, especially for southeast GA. Therefore highest chance of rain (generally in the 30-40% range) will be found south of I-10 in northeast FL. Given the pockets of drier air, localized stronger downbursts will be possible, especially where the best lift from the east coast sea breeze and/or mergers/boundary collisions occur. Though some drier air will allow afternoon dew points to mix down slightly below normal for this time of year, widespread high temperatures in the 90s to near 100 has already prompted a Heat Advisory area-wide Tuesday, with forecast heat indices generally in the 107-112 range. It is also worth noting that Tuesday Night is expected to be quite mild as well, with widespread upper 70s forecast and some areas possibly not dropping below 80F. Along with near record high max temperatures, some climate sites may also flirt with record high min temperatures Wednesday Morning.

The above mentioned front will drop even further south on Wednesday as some energy from a mid/upper trough also drops southward with it. These factors combined with the return of more robust moisture will result in more numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area, some of which could be strong to isolated severe. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already highlighted much of our area in a marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe storms, which will likely be adjusted over the next 24-36 hours. Along with very heavy downpours and flooding potential as precipitable water exceed 2 inches, strong downbursts up to 40-60mph are forecast to be the other primary hazard as temperatures aloft look to be on the warmer side for any hail development. More updates to be narrowed down through Tuesday. Wednesday will be another very hot one prior to the onset of any convection as well, with Heat Advisories being likely once again with widespread high temperatures in the upper 90s and forecast heat indices around 108-113F.

Long Term

_ Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which may become strong to severe

The above mentioned front looks to remain nearly stationary across southeast GA late in the week as some shortwave energy aloft also continues to come in waves at times as an upper trough slowly moves east into the Atlantic. The front will start to lift back northward a bit this upcoming weekend in response. This pattern will persist higher chances for showers and t'storms for much of the long term period. This setup will likely come with continuing chances for strong to isolated severe storms given abundant moisture/lift and some upper support. A more active pattern will drop temperatures closer to normal for this period overall.