Plaincast

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Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue to trend down in intensity this evening, additional shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to overspread the region once again tomorrow.

Heat index values over 100 degrees will continue through the work week.

Short Term

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 158 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

18z Mesoanalysis indicates an atmosphere that is increasing unstable with isolated incipient updrafts beginning to blossom along a pinned Atlantic sea-breeze. ACARS data and derived parameters indicate that there is some convective inhibition and near surface dry air which may limit the spatial extent of coverage in the near term before the cap is thoroughly eroded. With upper-level troughing across the eastern United States, a surface boundary to our north over Central Florida, and surface anti-cyclonic flow around a large surface high situated in the Gulf, prevailing background flow will remain out of a westerly direction today. This will result in the foci of afternoon convection residing along the pinned Atlantic sea-breeze as outflow from inland activity collides and provides localized maximized ascent. While background kinematics remain fairly meager given the lack of upper level forcing, "sea-breeze magic" (maximized ascent and boundary collision) and some residual dry air aloft could set the stage for one or two isolated strong to marginally severe storms on the Atlantic sea-breeze this afternoon and early evening. The main concern will be downburst-induced strong to marginally severe wind gusts as convective cores collapse in quick fashion. In addition, frequent to excessive cloud to ground lightning may occur with any thunderstorm activity in tandem with heavy rainfall. While 500mb temperatures are near the 75th percentile for today's date with ample melting occurring below the freezing layer, small sub-severe hail remains possible with the most robust convective activity. The HREF LPMM amongst other mesoscale model guidance hints at localized/isolated swaths of 2-3" of rainfall in a short period of time over portions of the east coast metro. Heavy rainfall that occurs in a short period of time in an urban setting could result in urban flooding. Given a slight delay in widespread convective initiation and background westerly flow, it'll be a scorcher on the unstable side of the pinned Atlantic sea-breeze with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s possible before rain cooled air and cloud cover materializes. As ongoing and future convection is diurnally driven, the cut-off of surface heating will result in a dissipation of daytime activity shortly after sunrise with leftover stratiform rain giving way to residual cloud cover.

A similar flow regime is in the cards on Tuesday as background westerly flow will prevail and once again focus the bulk of afternoon activity once again across the eastern half of the region with the potential of morning activity once again across southwestern Florida. Similar hazards with thunderstorm activity will once again be possible: strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall that could result in pockets of localized flooding.

Long Term

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Latest the American global model/EURO and the blend-of-models forecast chance of rain are trending towards lower values during the long term compared to previous runs with potential for a mid-week drying trend. One contributing factor will be patches of Saharan dust filtering into SoFlo, which will bring increasing stability and a stronger mid-lvl cap. This will result in a reduction in afternoon convection and less cloud coverage each day.

Rain coverage drops to 20-40% each afternoon through Friday with up to 50% around the Lake region where the best pool of moisture will reside. Then for the weekend, a series of short wave impulses will travel along a deepening trough over the E CONUS and push some of the lingering moisture over northern Florida back into the area. This will result in increasing coverage with a gradient of chance of rain south-to-north from 30% around Miami-Dade to 55-60% around the Lake region.

With less rain and cloud coverage, expect temperatures to remain above normals, with afternoon highs temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and low temperatures ranging from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts.