What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 6 passages since the 1:15 PM discussion. See every revision.
Scattered showers/storms will continue for another few hours before diminishing this evening. Additional showers/storms are expected mainly west of I-35 overnight.
Low storm chances (~20%) will occur on Friday mainly across our western counties.
Drier and hotter conditions are expected this weekend into next week with temperatures returning into the 90s and lower-100s.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue this evening mainly along and west of the I-35 corridor where modest forcing for ascent continues around the eastern periphery of an upper low. This activity should decrease in coverage through 9 pm with loss of heating but some low chance of rain will persist into the overnight. We've adjusted chance of rain upward slightly through 9 pm with the highest coverage expected to shift back across our far western counties overnight closer to the upper low. Heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary threat. Coverage of showers/storms should be considerably lower on Friday as the upper low drifts farther westward.
(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
The upper level low that brought multiple rounds of scattered to widespread precipitation across much of the state is currently located over West Texas. As a result, the best lift is located along the western edge of the forecast area, and scattered shower and storm activity (40-50%) is expected to be confined to areas west of I-35. To the east, heights are beginning to rise, bringing subsidence and limiting chances for convection to below 40% and decreasing as you move eastward. Multiple rounds of convection will be possible this afternoon and evening, as subtle impulses rounding the upper low trigger redevelopment. The primary hazard with this activity remains heavy rain and isolated flash flooding, along with a risk of gusty downburst winds. Activity should come to an end after sunset.
The upper level low continues to shift west, reaching the Southern Rockies Friday, with high pressure building in overhead. This will push chances for even isolated showers and storms (15-20%) well to the west, with mostly dry conditions expected across Central, East, and most of North Texas. This will be the last day of below normal temperatures, with some lingering morning cloud cover and ample surface moisture keeping Friday's highs in the low 90s.
(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
As the upper level low continues to meander westward and gradually fill, high pressure will build in across the center of the country. As a result, rain chances drop to near zero for the remainder of the forecast period, while temperatures begin to climb. Highs on Saturday are expected to run near-normal, thanks to a bit of lingering cloud cover. But by the start of the coming work week, temperatures will jump into the upper-90s to low-100s, with heat indices of 100-107 each day. This heat will likely stick around through the end of next week, as long-term guidance shows no hint of the high shifting away.
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