What the forecast actually says
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Area Forecast Discussions are the real forecasts, written 3 to 4 times daily by NWS meteorologists reading the models and interpreting what they mean for your area. They offer far deeper insight than any weather app, but they're written in dense meteorological shorthand. Plaincast uses Anthropic's Claude to summarize them into plain English, side by side with the annotated original.
Revised in 6 passages since the 12:48 PM discussion. See every revision.
Showers and storms will continue over the mountains on Friday. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue to be a concern over burn scars.
Monsoon plume shifts westward Saturday and Sunday with dry and hot conditions across the plains spreading into the southeast mountains.
Another gradual uptick in thunderstorms expected next as the Monsoon plume transitions eastward and a cool front drops through the southeast plains.
Forecast remains on track today, with convection continuing over the mountains into tonight. Greatest chances for heavy rainfall remains over the Continental Divide, and flash flooding will be our primary impact concern. Main areas to watch will be the Willow burn scar, the Chalk Cliffs, and possibly Poncha Pass and surrounding areas. The plains will remain dry, with temperatures similar to yesterday in the 80s-90s.
High pressure begins slowly moving north tomorrow, meaning that the monsoon moisture plume will start getting pushed west and a bit south. Overall, not too dissimilar from today, though with fewer showers over our eastern mountains. Meanwhile, the Continental Divide will continue to receive afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with the same problem areas at risk for flash flooding from pockets of heavy rainfall. Temperatures will also be similar to today, with 80s over the valleys and low-mid 90s for the plains. Our eastern areas will once again remain dry.
The moisture plume will continue shifting westward this weekend, decreasing convective coverage over SE Colorado. Some daily showers and thunderstorms will still be possible each day, but will mainly be confined to the San Juans and parts of the central mountains, with only isolated to scattered coverage. Temperatures will also increase, with portions of the far eastern plains approaching triple- digits by Sunday afternoon.
Upper high shifts eastward early next week, which should eventually put southern CO under a better monsoon moisture fetch. Models/ensembles look a little less enthused with thunderstorm potential on Monday for eastern areas due to a delay in the arrival of a cold front. With a later arrival on Tuesday, it still looks like the mid to latter part of the week may finally moisten up across southeast CO and hopefully bring some much needed rainfall. Northwest flow aloft may also increase storm strengths if low level moisture return and resultant storm energy is high enough in post frontal upslope flow. Would like to see the southerly monsoon moisture fetch shift eastward a bit more for greater confidence in more widespread wetting rains, but overall, the upslope signal suggests all burn scars in the southeast mountains (Aspen Acres and 24) may become more vulnerable to flash flooding at some point next week.
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