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Afternoon/evening rain chances (some heavy) increasing between now and late Wednesday as monsoon plume shunted eastward.
Continued hot, but NOT as hot as yesterday and today.
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Revised in 12 passages since the 11:38 AM discussion. See every revision.
Short Term
Another very hot day over the region is anticipated as max temperatures are once again going to get at or above 100F across most of the plains. Many areas over the plains will likely see temperatures 105 or hotter. The good news is this will be the last day of this record breaking heat as the monsoon plume is being shunted eastward and a weak boundary will move across the region late this afternoon or early evening. The combination of these two events should allow for some scattered storms to move/develop on the plains and move eastward later this evening. The storm activity is not expected to be widespread, but there will likely be more convection over the plans than we have seen in awhile.
With the combination of the boundary moving through and the precipitation activity, it will likely get breezy to windy across a good part of the plains this evening, with northeast to north winds prevailing.
In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to likely across the mountains this afternoon. As always, if a strong storm develops in a flash flood prone area, then flash flooding will be possible (especially over the Aspen Acres (AA) burn area).
Tomorrow, it will still be relatively hot but there will be a much better chance of showers and thunderstorms over all of the region. With plenty of low level moisture, mid/upper level monsoon moisture pushing in from the west, and (weak) synoptically evident short waves, there likely will some thunderstorms that will produce heavy rain. Guidance is painting expected rainfall maximums in and around the AA burn area and this area will have to be carefully watched tomorrow afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will likely last well into the evening hours across the plains (and possibly the mountains). This activity will also have the capability to produce locally heavy convective showers.
Max temperatures of Upper 80s to upper 90s will prevail over the plains tomorrow afternoon.
Long Term
Wednesday will likely be a repeat performance of Tuesday, with numerous to scattered thunderstorms, capable of producing heavy rain, over all of the region. expected rainfall guidance shows a better chance of heavier precipitation over a good part of the region as compared to Tuesday. Flash flooding threat may be exacerbated on Wednesday if flash flood prone areas see heavy rain on Tuesday.
Scattered to likely showers are expected over the mountains with only isolated to scattered storms over the plains. temperatures will warm up a bit with 90s to L100s over the plains.
Similar temperatures to Thursday, but less chance of rain regionwide.
Drier and hot, but not as hot as today or yesterday.
Looking a bit farther out. deterministic guidance hints at a Canadian front trying to push into the region for next Tuesday- ish. Both EC and the American global model show this solution, but the American global model is much more amplified while EC has more of a glancing blow. Lets hope! \/Hodanish
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