Pueblo (PUB) — the National Weather Service forecast in plain English · Plaincast

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Dry and warm today, with spotty critical fire weather conditions over and near portions of the higher terrain.

Temperatures ebb and flow through early next week with a slow increase in precipitation chances.

Cooler and wetter for the middle and end of the next week.

Short Term

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest westerly flow in place across the region, with the center of a large upper high in place across the Desert Southwest, as occasional embedded waves translate through the stronger zonal flow across the Northern Tier. GOES blended total precipitable water imagery indicates very dry air in place across the eastern Great Basin into western and central Colorado, where current dew pts are in the teens and 20s, and even in the single digits (9F and 8F) at the Saguache and Leadville airports at this time. Water vapor imagery does indicate another slug of sub-tropical/monsoonal moisture in place across the Baja of California into the western Great Basin region at this time.

For today and tonight, westerly flow aloft increases through the day, as embedded waves continue to translate across the Intermountain West and into the Northern Rockies tonight. The embedded dry air mixes across the higher terrain into the I-25 Corridor and plains through the day, while mid level moisture slowly increases across western Colorado, leading to some convective clouds over and near the higher terrain for the late afternoon into the early evening. Westerly afternoon breezes for areas over and near the higher terrain will develop spotty critical fire weather conditions, mainly across the Central Mountains into the mid and upper Arkansas river valley and portions of the San Luis Valley. However, conditions are not widespread enough for any fire weather highlights at this time. Temperatures are expected to by some 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms, with highs mainly in the 90s across the plains, and in the 60s, 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. Clearing skies through the evening will lead to seasonal lows in the 50s to low 60s across the plains, and mainly 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

Long Term

Models continue to indicate a few embedded waves translating across the Northern Tier through the weekend, ahead of a stronger upper low progged to move onshore across the PacNW on Sunday and continue across the Intermountain West and Northern Rockies through the middle of the week.

With that said, another weak front passing across the plains Saturday morning will bring a slight cool down to temperatures, mainly across the plains. A slow increase in available moisture within the westerly flow aloft will bring a slight chance of high based afternoon showers and storms over the higher terrain, with a few shra possibly moving across the I-25 Corridor late in the afternoon and early evening.

By Sunday, available moisture continues to increase within southwesterly flow aloft, leading to chances of afternoon showers and storms over and near the higher terrain, especially across the Continental Divide. Increasing southwest flow helps to develop lee troughing across the plains bringing breezy south to southwest winds and possibly a few storms along said boundary. Highs warm back into the 90s across the plains and remain in the 60s, 70s and 80s across the higher terrain.

For Monday and Tuesday, moist southwesterly flow continues across the region, with increasing uvv ahead of the passing upper system bringing good chances of precipitation across the higher terrain Monday and Tuesday, with the systems passing cold front Monday night bringing chances of precipitation to eastern Colorado into Tuesday. Temperatures at and slightly above seasonal levels on Monday, cool to below seasonal on Tuesday, with highs in the 70s to low 80s across the plains, and mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain, save for 70s across the high mountain valleys on Tuesday.

Monsoonal moisture looks to remain in place within modest west to southwest flow aloft across the region through the end of next week, leading to continued daily chances of precipitation, as well as temperatures remaining around seasonal levels.