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Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon through the weekend.

Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will be the primary hazards with any storms that develop.

Gradual warming continues into the weekend, with the return of heat index values in the triple digits for some.

Short Term

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Moist northwest flow wrapping around a mid-level ridge over the Gulf will provide ample support for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again on Friday. The primary threats from the isolated storms (20-25% chance) today will be gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours. Large scale forcing will be higher on Friday as a shortwave rides along the northern side of the ridge, so thunderstorm coverage will rise to scattered (40-60% chance). Storms could also be a little stronger to even near severe on Friday, with the same threats as today (winds, lightning, heavy rain).

Hot and humid conditions (typical for mid-July) will continue today, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Slightly higher dewpoints will move in on Friday, bringing peak heat index values above 100 across most of the region. A Heat Advisory may be needed for parts of Eastern Georgia, where heat index values may exceed 105F. Winds will be out of the northwest around 7-10 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph, which will try its hardest to make the heat less brutal.

Long Term

(Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 232 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

As the extended period begins on Saturday morning, a weak low at the 500 mb level over the northwestern Gulf will begin to meander towards the Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, an upper level trough moving across the Great Lakes will extend southward through the Ohio Valley region, continuing eastward towards the Atlantic coast. A warm and humid airmass will remain in place between these two features, with low temperatures (and dewpoints) on Saturday starting off in the mid 70s across the majority of the area. High temperatures will be near to just above seasonal normals, ranging from the upper 80s in far north Georgia to the mid 90s in areas south of I-85. Heat index values are also forecast to rise to over 100 across the majority of the state, excluding the far northern tier. Locations in east-central Georgia could furthermore exceed 105 which would warrant a Heat Advisory in a later forecast update. With little change in the airmass north and central Georgia, temperatures and dewpoints will be similar on Sunday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area on Saturday and Sunday, with chance of rain (50-60%) highest during the afternoon with daily enhancement. Mid-range guidance also indicates the development of surface troughing to the east of the Appalachians by late Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. The presence of this trough and ample instability could favor the formation of organized clusters of storms. A surface cold front stretching horizontally across Kentucky could furthermore storms on Sunday, which could also become organized as they drop towards north Georgia within northwesterly flow. In both cases, these storms could produce strong wind gusts in addition to the requisite heavy rain and frequent lightning that come with summertime storms.

By Sunday, the 500 mb low will phase with the trough, which will cause it to get pulled northeast towards the Georgia/South Carolina Coast. The National Hurricane Center has identified a 20% probability of tropical development in association with this feature over the next 7 days. Uncertainty and inconsistency remain in the guidance on the movement of this feature, and if it even develops at all. However, a stronger southern feature will likely correspond with drier northeasterly flow on the back side of the system, which will in turn result in lower chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday through mid-week. chance of rain on Monday and Tuesday are limited to slight chance at this time, while low-end chance chance of rain return to central Georgia on Wednesday. This outcome will be sensitive to the development and path of the southern feature and any interaction with the trough, and will need to be monitored as the forecast continues to come together.