Plaincast
What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Revised in 3 passages since the 3:36 AM discussion. See every revision.
Areas of dense fog is expected through mid-morning, especially across central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois where a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect.
There are chances (20-30%) for showers and a few thunderstorms through this weekend with better chances next week. Isolated storms late Saturday night could produce gusty winds and heavy downpours over central and northeast Missouri.
Slowly increasing temperatures are expected through early next week.
The latest satellite imagery is showing fog persisting across parts of central and northeast Missouri into west central Illinois early this morning. Surface observations are showing multiple observations at 1/4 mile where we already have a Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 am. Fog continues to develop southeast of the advisory area where there is thinning in the clouds, with a few locations reporting dense fog in the river valleys. Will continue to monitor for an expansion of the advisory the next few hours if we continue to get more reports. This fog will eventually dissipate when we begin to see some low level mixing later this morning.
The latest run of the RAP is showing a weak upper low moving slowly northeast across the area today and tonight. Forecast soundings are showing weak positive areas, with the only uncapped sounding at FAM. Will keep with a 20-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms today mainly across the southern forecast area and continuing into the southeastern forecast area tonight. With light winds and moist conditions in the boundary layer, the HREF probabilities and model output statistics guidance is pointing for additional fog late tonight over central and southeast Missouri and in river valleys.
I expect more sun today than yesterday, so highs should climb back into the lower to mid 80s. With 850mb temperatures climbing back to around 20C on Saturday, highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s in most areas.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over western Missouri on Saturday afternoon and evening and move eastward Saturday night. There continues to be spread in the models on where these thunderstorms track, with the the regional model showing a more robust complex of storms that moves to the southeast that would affect central Missouri versus the the American global model that has less expected rainfall that moves to the east. We will continue with just a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight on Saturday night. There remains some possibility per the latest SWODY2 that one or two of these storms will be capable of producing damaging winds along with locally heavy rainfall per WPC.
The chance for showers and thunderstorms will be mainly confined across northeast Missouri and west central Illinois Sunday into Monday in close proximity to a front as a large upper high builds over the southern CONUS. The front will move southeast by Tuesday and become stalled over the area through Thursday with the LREF having 40-60% of its members producing rain at St. Louis during this timeframe.
With a front in the area, there will be a contrast in highs with 80s over the north and 90s in the south.
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Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub