Plaincast
What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Plaincast decodes the National Weather Service's Area Forecast Discussion — the real forecast, written 3 to 4 times a day by the meteorologist on shift — into plain English. The discussion is where a forecaster explains their reasoning: which models disagree, what they are watching, and how confident they are. Below is the current edition for Flagstaff, with its shorthand expanded. The full experience — an AI plain-English summary beside the annotated original — loads with JavaScript, and every one of the 68 forecast offices has its own edition.
Chances for showers return later this afternoon, primarily along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Coverage for precipitation will increase on Saturday, before another drying trend settles in Sunday and Monday. Additional unsettled weather likely throughout next week, where lower snow levels will be possible.
The area of high pressure that's been driving our warm/calm weather the last few days is finally pushing eastward, with dual low pressure systems following right behind. The first shortwave will dive south of Arizona, keeping precipitation chances limited to the southern portion of our forecast area. The second low pressure system will follow immediately behind and increase coverage for showers on Saturday. With the elevated saturation from the first trough, there should be sufficient moisture to have a rainy/snowy day across much of central/northern Arizona. Snow levels on Saturday will remain mostly above 8000', allowing areas such as the Kaibab Plateau, San Fransisco Peaks, and White Mountains to see an inch or so of snow accumulation. Lower elevation location are anticipated to see up to 0.25" of rainfall.
By the time Sunday rolls around, another ridge will set-up across the Southwest. This pattern will be short-lived, but it will be around long enough for temperatures to crawl back to seasonal norms and for drier conditions to settle in.
We'll remain in an active pattern through the foreseeable future, with another storm system looking to impact the region by Tuesday. This next disturbance appears to be colder and stronger, so we may see light snow accumulation down to 6500-7000'. Shouldn't be enough to cause many impacts across populated areas, but could leave the Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning commute on the slippery side. Model guidance suggests a brief lull in activity Wednesday, before another potential storm system impacts Arizona. Confidence is still low on the timing/specific impacts of these upcoming disturbances, so check back later for updated information.
This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. Read the whole Flagstaff discussion at /o/FGZ/, see what changed since the last one, or open The National Desk for where the weather is today.
Data from the National Weather Service. Translated by Claude. About · For developers & agents · Subscribe: RSS feed for this office · Source on GitHub