Plaincast — the National Weather Service forecast, decoded into plain English

Messages

Scattered showers and storms return late today through Saturday

Progressively warmer temperatures late weekend into the first half of next week

Discussion

The front that brought the showers on Thursday is now south of the Ohio River and will wash out today. Remnant moisture associated with the front will interact with a weak upper low to produce additional chances for rain across the Ohio Valley late today into Saturday.

Upper ridging will expand north into the region late weekend into early next week with warmer temperatures returning through the middle of next week. A cold front will become nearly stationary across the lower Great Lakes next week before gradually sliding into the Ohio Valley during the second half of next week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Skies continue to clear slowly from the north early this morning as high pressure resides over the Great Lakes. The cold front from Thursday has now shifted into the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys with convection south of the Ohio River. 06Z temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to the low 70s.

Much of the day will be dry as the region sits under the influence of the aforementioned high pressure to the north. The deeper moisture associated with the front remains in relatively close proximity to the south and this will keep clouds in greater abundance across the southern half of the forecast area today. As the boundary washes out and a weak upper low develops over the Ozarks. the moisture axis will be drawn back north into the southern part of the forecast area late day as the high shifts east into New England. Instability is weak but cannot entirely rule out a few showers or rumbles of thunder developing across the lower Wabash Valley east into far southern portions of central Indiana into this evening prior to the loss of heating.

The upper low will weaken into an open wave as it pivots to the northeast into the Ohio Valley overnight. Expect an increase in coverage in showers during the predawn hours focused particularly over the southeast half of the forecast area. The wave aloft will drift east across the area on Saturday with scattered showers and storms in a moist and unstable airmass. The upper wave axis and deeper moisture plume will shift east of the region by late day with a downtick in convective coverage from the west as the afternoon progresses. Weak surface ridging builds in Saturday night with dry yet muggy conditions.

temperatures. a cooler easterly flow combined with broader coverage of clouds should keep highs generally in the lower 80s today. Despite the potential for scattered convection Saturday. southerly flow reestablishing will enable afternoon highs to recover into the mid and upper 80s with warmest temperatures in the Wabash Valley.