What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Plaincast decodes the National Weather Service's Area Forecast Discussion — the real forecast, written 3 to 4 times a day by the meteorologist on shift — into plain English. The discussion is where a forecaster explains their reasoning: which models disagree, what they are watching, and how confident they are. Below is the current edition for Sacramento, with its shorthand expanded. The full experience — an AI plain-English summary beside the annotated original — loads with JavaScript, and every one of the 68 forecast offices has its own edition.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Sacramento (STO) · issued Thursday, September 10 at 12:30 PM PDT.
Messages
Hot, dry and breezy through Thursday, with areas of Moderate HeatRisk and elevated fire weather conditions
Notable cool down over the weekend, with near to below normal temperatures expected
Breezy onshore winds Thursday-Saturday followed by gustier north winds Saturday night-Monday with elevated to critical fire weather conditions over the weekend
Discussion
Mid to high level clouds are once again passing through portions of interior NorCal on GOES-West visible satellite imagery this afternoon. Highs are expected to be very warm today, with widespread triple digits and Moderate HeatRisk (areas of Major HeatRisk) forecasted in the Valley. To this point, a Heat Advisory remains in effect through 10 PM PDT tonight. Elevated fire weather conditions remain today as well, with breezy north winds at times and low daytime relative humidity. Virga and sprinkles remain possible (10-15% chance) over the Sierra this afternoon, along with a non-zero chance for isolated lightning. Highest chances for both are south of I-80.
On Friday, onshore flow returns, along with the beginning of a notable cool down as the ridging overhead begins to flatten and troughing progresses inland over the Pacific Northwest. Breezy southerly winds are expected along with the closer to normal temperatures on Friday, strongest gusts will occur in and near the Delta, as well as over the Sierra crest.
Saturday morning and afternoon, as the troughing moves further inland, gusty south to west winds are expected across interior NorCal. The the blend-of-models forecast has gusts around 25 to 35 mph on Saturday. In the evening and transitioning into Sunday, winds will remain gusty but the direction will shift to north to east. the blend-of-models forecast probabilities for 30 mph gusts or higher on Sunday and Monday have trended down slightly (20 to 40% for both days now), however chances for gusts of 25 mph or higher remain good (around 50 to 70% in the Sacramento Valley along and west of I-5). Due to these windy conditions, along with generally low relative humidities, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of the Sacramento Valley and northern foothills from 11 am PDT on Saturday, to 11 am PDT on Monday. Areas not included in the Watch will still see elevated fire weather conditions, just more limited in time and scope.
Temperatures over the weekend will be near to below normal with highs in the Valley and foothills fluctuating in the 80s through Monday. Tuesday and onward, weak troughing will remain over NorCal, maintaining near normal temperatures and periodically breezy winds. Be sure to follow the forecast at weather.gov for any updates!
This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. Read the whole Sacramento discussion at /o/STO/, see what changed since the last one, or open The National Desk for where the weather is today.