Plaincast — the National Weather Service forecast, decoded into plain English

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Slick travel conditions due to valley rain and mountain snow will favor the northern half of New Mexico Saturday.

There is a low (10% - 20%) risk of flooding impacts over northwestern New Mexico Saturday.

Quieter conditions expected Sunday and Monday, with unsettled weather returning Tuesday and again late next week.

Short Term

(Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 1233 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

This prolonged stretch of calm and tranquil weather over the Land of Enchantment comes to an end this afternoon with the arrival of showers and storms into the southwestern half of NM. The first phase of this stretch of unsettled weather lasting well into the weekend arrives this afternoon with a shortwave trough tracking along the international border bringing a southwesterly flow of scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms into the southwestern half of NM. The combination of divergent flow aloft and modest moisture will allow for a cluster of thunderstorms to develop along the southwestern mountains of NM early this afternoon. HiRes CAMs have been picking up on this more robust convective activity, steadily bringing them toward I-40 from Gallup to ABQ and as far as Farmington to Los Alamos and Santa Fe into the evening hours. Gusty winds and brief moderate rain with perhaps some small hail may accompany these storms as they look to be hit-and-miss across west- central, and central NM. While this batch of showers and isolated storms looks to lose cohesion and fall apart generally northeast of U.S. Hwy 550, a more cohesive batch of showers and thunderstorms looks to develop along the south-central mountains over Lincoln and Otero Counties during the afternoon period, continuing into the southeastern plains toward Roswell by the evening. This batch of convection will have greater potential to produce heavier rainfall of 0.25" to 0.50" tonight into Saturday morning, aided by being closer to the remnant shortwave trough axis.

Phase two of this event enters stage left into northwest NM while showers over southeastern and east-central NM progress northward into northeastern NM. Whatever is left of the initial shortwave trough begins to phase into the 2nd upper level trough. Numerical model guidance remains fairly consistent with this Saturday feature with a 110-130kt H3 jet max cutting through its southern flank and helping it close off over or just lee of the Rockies. Light showers will have begun already over the northern mountains Friday night into Saturday morning, intensifying as upper level dynamics and orographic uplift enhance valley rain and high elevation snow across northern NM through the day Saturday. Steadily clearing conditions fill in behind this fast moving system west to east as it exits over northeastern NM early Sunday morning. Wrap around moisture will keep precipitation going the longest over the northeastern plains Sunday morning before all areas clear out by Sunday afternoon.

All told, snow levels look to start off at ~9,500' Saturday morning, falling to as low as ~8,000' Sunday morning. Forecast snow accumulations have trended up a tad over the northern mountains generally above 9,000' with amounts of 2-6 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 8 inches atop the peaks. A Winter Weather Advisory is likely for the Tusas Mountains, focused on slick winter travel along the U.S. Hwy 64 corridor there. The Sangre de Cristo Mts may also see Winter Weather Advisory amounts of snow accumulations as well, but current thinking is these snow amounts will be at higher elevations with limited to no impacts in populated or traveled areas. Rain totals through this event at lower elevations will range from 0.10" to 0.50". Despite the relatively lighter rainfall amounts and duration, there remains a low risk (10%- 20%) of even this amount exacerbating recovery efforts through northwestern NM where ground and road conditions remain treacherous from the most recent flooding event.