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There is a moderate to high risk of flash flooding from slow moving thunderstorms over portions of central and western NM through this weekend.

Moderate to major heat risk will impact lower elevations of central and eastern New Mexico over the next seven days with high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s.

Daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall continues at varying coverages over the next seven days.

Short Term

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The latest water vapor imagery and GOES derived winds shows deep moisture draped across NM with the center of the monsoon high near the Four Corners. The 18Z KABQ precipitable water was 1.32" (just below the daily record of 1.39" from 1968) with slow steering flow toward the west and northwest. Showers and storms have developed over the higher terrain and will continue expanding through the afternoon. Abundant moisture and instability with slow-moving storms will elevate the risk for flash flooding, especially in areas that have received recent heavy rains. The Flood Watch was expanded to include the Middle and Lower RGV westward into the watch that was already in effect. Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hour are expected with the stronger cells, along with strong downburst wind gusts, small hail, and frequent lightning strikes. Several CAMs show storms tapering off to showers through late evening as an MCV feature rolls northwest across central NM.

Storm placement Sunday is still likely to be focused over northern and western NM, however the coverage is more uncertain. The monsoon high will refocus over northeast NM Sunday and strengthen to near 599dm. H5 temperatures warm to near -3C over a larger area of central and eastern NM with H7 temperatures between +18 and +22C. The remnant MCV near west-central NM may amount to no more than persistent cloud cover Sunday morning, which could limit coverage from less instability, or, delay storms until later in the day. Areas surrounding the cloud shield may erupt again by early to mid afternoon as long as updrafts can overcome very warm mid level temperatures. The 12Z the regional model and RRFS show the central mt chain westward favored for the heavier expected rainfall Sunday, including the Ruidoso area. However, the HREF & REFS 6-hour LPMM QPFs and NBM90th percentile expected rainfall show an overall downtrend in the heavier rainfall footprints Sunday. There are several conflicting factors that do not warrant a Flood Watch at this time so latest trends in 00Z/06Z guidance will be helpful to improve confidence.

Long Term

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 100 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Monday through Friday will feature a typical late July monsoon pattern with the upper level high migrating westward across northern NM to the Four Corners region by late week. Daily rounds of showers and storms will develop over the higher terrain then move into nearby lowlands on convective outflows. High precipitable water and slow storm motion will still allow for locally heavy rainfall amounts >1.5". Northern and western NM will be favored in this pattern with differences in the overall coverage and intensity varying from day to day.