Plaincast — the National Weather Service forecast, decoded into plain English

Plaincast decodes the National Weather Service's Area Forecast Discussion — the real forecast, written 3 to 4 times a day by the meteorologist on shift — into plain English. The discussion is where a forecaster explains their reasoning: which models disagree, what they are watching, and how confident they are. Below is the current edition for Duluth, with its shorthand expanded. The full experience — an AI plain-English summary beside the annotated original — loads with JavaScript, and every one of the 68 forecast offices has its own edition.

Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Duluth (DLH) · issued Friday, September 11 at 6:41 AM CDT.

Messages

There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.

Cooler fall weather moves in Saturday and into the foreseeable future.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely Monday and Monday night. Severe weather is not expected. Localized minor flooding can't be ruled out.

Update

Quiet weather for the rest of tonight and through much of the day today, as southwesterly winds increase ahead of an approaching storm system. Winds will be breezy with gusts of 25-30 mph by this afternoon. Although clouds will be increasing, highs will still reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, with mid 70s along portions of the North Shore, under strong warm advection.

Severe storm potential for this Afternoon-Evening:

The airmass will become increasingly unstable through the afternoon, as moisture and warm air advects northward ahead of the approaching surface low and cold front. The parameter space remains unchanged from what was highlighted in the previous discussion below. What we will need to continue to watch is the strength of the cap around 750mb, as that will prevent development through much of the afternoon. As surface temperatures hit the low 80s, at the time where shear values are increasing, isolated cells could develop. These storms would pose the largest tornado threat, along with large hail. Storm mode will transition to more linear into the early evening, with the primary threat becoming damaging winds. This line will push eastward through the evening hours, with scattered showers hanging around portions of the Arrowhead and northwest WI for a few hours past midnight.

This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. Read the whole Duluth discussion at /o/DLH/, see what changed since the last one, or open The National Desk for where the weather is today.