What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service Duluth (DLH) · issued Friday, November 13 at 5:56 AM CST.
Revised in 7 passages since the 1:17 AM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Light lake-effect snow lingers for the snow belt today, dissipating this evening. Some areas could see up to another 0.5 to 1" in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron counties.
Dry, warming conditions are expected for the weekend and into next week. Highs will be in the upper 30s to 40s over the weekend and mid 40s to 50s next week.
A larger low pressure system will bring increasing precipitation chances late next week, with rain being the favored precipitation type given well-above normal temperatures.
Discussion
As of 115 AM CST, lake-effect snow along the South Shore has briefly paused as thermal profiles show some near-surface drying, further evidenced by observed surface dewpoint depressions of 7-11F. This should be short-lived as increased low-level moisture returns this morning through early evening, bringing back light lake-effect snow to parts of the South Shore (i.e., portions of Bayfield County and Price County, and primarily in Ashland and Iron counties). Much of this low-level moisture remains outside of the dendritic growth zone, just touching it at the top of the layer with much drier air above it. Therefore, snow rates will continue to be light, particularly when combined with warm ground temperatures and above-freezing air temperatures mid- morning through the afternoon today. Expect additional accumulations to largely be less than 0.5", though 0.5" to around 1" are still possible in the higher terrain of the Gogebic Range in Ashland and Iron counties.
Outside of the South Shore lake-effect snow and associated cloud cover into northwest Wisconsin, most of the remainder of the Northland will be dry with a mix of clouds/clear skies early and becoming mostly sunny this afternoon. High temperatures today remain slightly below average, topping out in the mid to upper 30s alongside light north to northeast winds.
A several day period of dry weather sets up for this weekend into early next week as upper-level ridging moves over the central CONUS/Upper Midwest. High pressure settles into the region for this weekend, with light and variable winds Saturday and southerly winds on Sunday. Temperatures gradually warm starting this weekend, first with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s on Saturday and low to mid 40s on Sunday. Overnight lows drop into the mid teens to 20s. Expect mostly sunny skies both days.
Monday and Tuesday will also be dry with even warmer temperatures as the surface high pressure slides east of the region and breezier southerly winds usher in high temperatures in the mid 40s to low/mid 50s.
No significant changes to the previous forecast as a larger low pressure system is on track to bring increasing precipitation chances Thursday/Friday of next week as it moves into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Well-above normal temperatures continue through the latter half of next work week with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. Given these warmer temperatures, the favored precipitation type is rain for the Northland.
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