What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Plaincast decodes the National Weather Service's Area Forecast Discussion — the real forecast, written 3 to 4 times a day by the meteorologist on shift — into plain English. The discussion is where a forecaster explains their reasoning: which models disagree, what they are watching, and how confident they are. Below is the current edition for New Orleans, with its shorthand expanded. The full experience — an AI plain-English summary beside the annotated original — loads with JavaScript, and every one of the 68 forecast offices has its own edition.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service New Orleans (LIX) · issued Friday, November 13 at 5:27 AM CST.
Messages
Dry air combined with ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns across northern portions of the area through Sunday. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.
A strong cold front has moved through the area and will likely bringing potential for frost to some northern areas Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Hazardous marine conditions are expected off and on through midweek next week. Gusts up to gale force will be possible later this weekend and early next week.
Short Term
(Now through Sunday) Issued at 121 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
The strong Arctic front has pushed through the region earlier this afternoon. Here at ASD, surface dew points have dropped into the middle 40s. With much of the regional temperatures still well into the 70s, an SPS has been issued for low humidity values and elevated winds leading to the potential for enhanced fire weather. The highest chances for fires will reside over the MS Gulf Coast, Southwest Mississippi, and the Florida Parishes of Louisiana.
Synoptically, the region resides under a strong dry northwest flow on the western periphery of the strong broad scale upper trough. This should continue to keep things dry through much of the short term period. Similar to today, humidity values will be low, but winds will still be below critical thresholds. That said, antecedent conditions are very favorable for ignition of fires especially as vegetation becomes more and more dormant.
Outside of the dry conditions, temperatures will also need to be monitored. With strong CAA, lower heights/thicknesses, Friday will be cooler with temperatures struggling to reach the uppers 60 or lower 70s. As winds calm slightly Saturday morning, temperatures are forecast to drop into the middle and upper 30s north of the I10/12 corridor. Southshore will cool into the middle 40s for the most part. We will need to watch for the potential of frost and maybe freezing conditions. However, high cloudiness during the overnight hours may help limit radiational cooling just enough to keep the region from seeing freezing conditions. Globals are adamant it will be a bit warmer, but model output statistics and a few mesoscale guidances are far lower so blended these solutions for now. The best potential would be over the drainage basins, but again there is still a bit more uncertainty depending on cloudiness. On Sunday morning frost may be possible, but temperatures appear to be just a few degrees higher with light winds expected. The best possible shot will be in the extreme northeastern portions of the CWFA.
Going into Sunday the upper level pattern breaks down as the broad scale trough exits stage east. With a more progressive flow in place expect temperatures during the afternoon to be slightly warmer. An upper trough dives southward out of the Red River valley, but it appears that this feature will be well west of our region leading to continued dry conditions with no rainfall expected. (Frye)
This is the plain-text edition, decoded without AI so it loads anywhere. Read the whole New Orleans discussion at /o/LIX/, see what changed since the last one, or open The National Desk for where the weather is today.