What the forecast actually says — NWS Area Forecast Discussions, decoded into plain English.
Area Forecast Discussion · National Weather Service New Orleans (LIX) · issued Friday, November 13 at 5:27 AM CST.
Revised in 1 passage since the 5:56 PM discussion. See every revision.
Messages
Dry air combined with ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns across northern portions of the area through Sunday. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.
A strong cold front has moved through the area and will likely bringing potential for frost to some northern areas Saturday and Sunday mornings.
Hazardous marine conditions are expected off and on through midweek next week. Gusts up to gale force will be possible later this weekend and early next week.
Short Term
(Now through Sunday) Issued at 121 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
The strong Arctic front has pushed through the region earlier this afternoon. Here at ASD, surface dew points have dropped into the middle 40s. With much of the regional temperatures still well into the 70s, an SPS has been issued for low humidity values and elevated winds leading to the potential for enhanced fire weather. The highest chances for fires will reside over the MS Gulf Coast, Southwest Mississippi, and the Florida Parishes of Louisiana.
Synoptically, the region resides under a strong dry northwest flow on the western periphery of the strong broad scale upper trough. This should continue to keep things dry through much of the short term period. Similar to today, humidity values will be low, but winds will still be below critical thresholds. That said, antecedent conditions are very favorable for ignition of fires especially as vegetation becomes more and more dormant.
Outside of the dry conditions, temperatures will also need to be monitored. With strong CAA, lower heights/thicknesses, Friday will be cooler with temperatures struggling to reach the uppers 60 or lower 70s. As winds calm slightly Saturday morning, temperatures are forecast to drop into the middle and upper 30s north of the I10/12 corridor. Southshore will cool into the middle 40s for the most part. We will need to watch for the potential of frost and maybe freezing conditions. However, high cloudiness during the overnight hours may help limit radiational cooling just enough to keep the region from seeing freezing conditions. Globals are adamant it will be a bit warmer, but model output statistics and a few mesoscale guidances are far lower so blended these solutions for now. The best potential would be over the drainage basins, but again there is still a bit more uncertainty depending on cloudiness. On Sunday morning frost may be possible, but temperatures appear to be just a few degrees higher with light winds expected. The best possible shot will be in the extreme northeastern portions of the CWFA.
Going into Sunday the upper level pattern breaks down as the broad scale trough exits stage east. With a more progressive flow in place expect temperatures during the afternoon to be slightly warmer. An upper trough dives southward out of the Red River valley, but it appears that this feature will be well west of our region leading to continued dry conditions with no rainfall expected. (Frye)
Long Term
(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 121 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026
By Sunday night, an upper level H3 trough currently just off the west coast will squeeze the high to its east causing the trough to sharpen over the southern half of the country and northern Mexico as it moves east. This will produce a surface low over TX which will move into the west gulf by Sat night or Sunday. The trough and surface low weaken with time as another strong short wave drops down the west side of the large eastern CONUS trough developing another stronger surface low that moves through the southern states Monday. We don't have any sampling of the upper trough that causes all of this to occur yet. But that is coming either with the 6p run today or 6a run Friday. So confidence is not very high with models in almost total disagreement with spacial and temporal solutions. We will have to see how these two surface lows interact as the first will be moving slower as it weakens which lends to the potential for phasing. The east coast trough does not budge this whole time until after this short wave kicks out Tue. The current model that closest resembles the last sampling of the jet is the EURO, but loosely at best. The global suites will come more in line once this trough is sampled. If the surface low follows the strongest the historical average thermal gradient, which is near the coast like the EURO advertises during the first part of next week, it could be another beneficial measurement of rainfall for the area. If it is forced far to the south, like the the American global model wants to handle it, there won't be as much to speak of. The the American global model scenario is a strongly forced scenario where the EURO is somewhat forced but is still holding onto the historical average guidance. Again, this will all start to make more sense as we move through Friday. Regardless which model we tend to gravitate toward, we will be dry and cool again by Wed possibly with cloud cover. (TE)
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